Wednesday, September 29, 2010

South Africa-China Comprehensive Strategic Partnership: dining in the dragon’s lair?

Taku Fundira, a Tralac Researcher, asks and discusses the question: South Africa-China Comprehensive Strategic Partnership: dining in the dragon’s lair?

The Sino-South Africa (RSA) relationship has reached new heights since the establishment in 1998 of diplomatic relations between the two countries. To date, we have witnessed considerable achievements in Sino-RSA economic, trade cooperation and increases in bilateral trade. In 2009, China became South Africa’s largest export destination overtaking the US and trade statistics from the World Trade Atlas reveal that total trade between the two countries reached US$ 15 billion in 2009, accounting for 17% of China-Africa trade. This share places South Africa as China’s second top African trading partner after Angola. The most recent engagement between the two countries is the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP), signed by President Jacob Zuma and his counterpart Premier Hu Jintao on 24 August 2010. This marked the last of a series of state visits by President Zuma to the BRIC nations that began in October of 2009 in Brazil.

38 bilateral cooperation agreements are contained in the declaration, ranging from political dialogues, trade, investment, mineral exploration and agriculture to joint efforts in the global arena, such as in the United Nations and the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC). The signing of the CSP can be viewed as a commitment to further strengthen the bilateral relations between the countries and establish a viable long term relationship which takes into account not only the political, but also the commercial interests of both parties.

For the South African government, this relationship is viewed as a vital strategic foreign policy goal to align itself with the new economic giant. According to Alves and Sidiropoulos (2010), the link between the government’s domestic socio-economic priorities and South Africa’s international relations, is at the forefront. This implies that domestic priorities of enhancing access to quality education, health, job creation and poverty eradication have to be factored in. The complementarities in this case offer South Africa an opportunity to learn from China. For China, South Africa offers among other opportunities a gateway to consolidate and expand its African footprint.

Despite the importance of this south-south configuration from a political and economic view, this relationship is not without its challenges, especially with labour movements which accuse Chinese competition as a key reason for job losses. Furthermore, trade between the two countries mirrors that of South Africa and its traditional north partners, where RSA exports are mainly primary resource based-products and imports are mainly manufactured value added products. The prevalence of non-tariff barriers that exist especially for agriculture further exacerbates the concerns as these are hampering RSA’s penetration of the China market. Despite these concerns and given the current forecasts of China’s future economic size and political weight, the logic of improving relations seems irrefutable.

In tralac’s recent publication on South Africa’s Way Ahead – Looking East, we note that expected losses (employment, wages, and production) in certain sectors will be offset by the opportunities created in other sectors with a competitive potential thus in the long run allowing South Africa to develop and expand trade in its competitive sectors. Affected sectors such as clothing and textiles need to be realigned and adopt new technologies while opportunities exist in the chemicals, plastics and non-ferrous metals sectors.

While South Africa dines in the dragon’s lair, there should be a common understanding amongst South African stakeholders, of China role’s in the global economy. The South African government needs to inform its stakeholders that China’s rise is inevitable, and we should not avoid engaging China effectively on the trade front. Concentrating only on defensive positions, on how to limit China’s impact is counter-productive and will ensure that the Sino-RSA relationship remains skewed in ways that suit the Chinese economy far more than those of South Africa.

http://www.tralac.org/cgi-bin/giga.cgi?cmd=cause_dir_news_item&cause_id=1694&news_id=93462&cat_id=1030

References

Alves and Sidiropoulos (2010), South Africa-China Relations: Getting Beyond the Cross-roads? The Sunday Independent, 29 August 2010, [online] full article

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Sunday, September 19, 2010

Commission for Africa - New Report

Commission for Africa today launched its new report – Still Our Common Interest – which calls upon African leaders to step up efforts to convert unprecedented economic opportunities into poverty reduction and development.

The new report, Still Our Common Interest, follows up on the previous report published in March 2005. It looks at what has happened in Africa in the past five years, conducts an audit of progress against each of the recommendations made in the 2005 report and makes recommendations for next steps.

Still Our Common Interest:

Celebrates the progress Africa has made in the past five years.
Calls on African governments to continue to promote growth and channel revenues into poverty reduction and key services.
Calls for donors to increase their support to Africa to take account of new challenges, in particular climate change.
Calls for the international community to support the capacity-building efforts of African governments by, for example, helping them access the best legal advice in negotiating deals for their natural resources.
Five years after it published its original report, the Commission for Africa is calling on African governments to act now to ensure that the region’s unprecedented economic growth and opportunities result in development and poverty reduction for ordinary Africans.

Africa has seen average growth rates of six per cent for most of the past decade and a quadrupling of trade and foreign investment. Some countries in Africa are on track to meet some of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), reflecting the progress made since the last report. However, the majority of Africans have yet to experience the benefits of economic growth. Progress towards the MDGs needs to be broader and faster if the continent as a whole is to make significant progress towards meeting the MDGs.

In a short joint statement, the Commissioners said:

“There is much to celebrate. African governments have done more than ever before to promote business and investment. Donors have supported this by boosting their support to infrastructure and providing the aid and debt relief that has allowed African governments to increase their expenditure in key areas such as health, education and agriculture.

But there remains much to be done. Progress on reforming international trade rules has been dismal; donors are still providing less in aid than their commitments; and African governments are still not investing as much as they promised in key areas. That is why we believe this review is timely, and why we believe it is right to renew a number of the recommendations we made in 2005 – because they have yet to be fully implemented – as well as make new recommendations.

Africa’s development requires a range of measures, with African governments in the lead supported by the international community. For example, harnessing international demand for Africa’s natural resources to benefit ordinary Africans will depend on the commitment of African governments to passing on the benefits to their citizens, but also them having access to the best legal advice and a system of international trade that does not disadvantage Africa’s products.”

Still Our Common Interest, the Commission’s review of what has happened in and to Africa since it first reported in March 2005, makes recommendations for what needs to happen next to speed up progress on the continent.

It recommends that African governments:

Continue their efforts to make it easier to do business within and between their countries – including investing in much needed infrastructure.
Ensure that they are collecting the revenues from growth through improved domestic resource mobilisation.

Meet their commitments on spending on health, education, water and sanitation, and agriculture.

Develop and deliver clear strategies to create jobs, reduce poverty and strengthen key services such as health and education.

The report also calls upon developed countries to:

Get behind Africa governments’ own strategies for promoting growth and development.
Help Africa negotiate the best deals possible for the exploitation of its natural resources by supporting a fund to pay for the legal and technical advice to do this.
Kick start long-delayed reform of international trade rules.

Continue to support Africa’s development – including by supporting a Global Fund for Education and providing additional financing to adapt to climate change.

Agree that the G20 will take on the G8’s previous role in making and monitoring commitments to supporting growth and development in Africa.

Still Our Common Interest looks at what has happened against the Commission’s various recommendations.

Summary of key findings

In a number of areas, there has been “substantial progress”, including:

Steps taken by African governments to improve the investment climate and increases in aid and debt relief to the continent.

A substantial increase in investment in infrastructure which has contributed to Africa’s growth.

Progress towards an international Arms Trade Treaty.

Strong international support for the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisations (GAVI) that has enabled 300 million children to be immunised globally.

African governments’ commitment alongside strong donor support that has enabled access to the anti-retroviral treatments for HIV/AIDS to grow from 14% in 2005 to 43% in 2008

More children go to primary school and more get to sleep under a bed net that can protect them from malaria than ever before.

Africa is very close to eradicating polio.

But there are also a few areas where progress has been “disappointing”:

International trade reform is perhaps the area of least progress with no movement towards an agreement in the Doha Development Agenda, the removal of agricultural subsidies or trade agreements between the EU and African countries.

The Commission called for the amount of arable land under irrigation in Africa to be increased by 50% by 2010 – it has grown by just 0.9%.

Investment in higher education has not improved – contributing to a continued shortage of trained teachers, doctors and other key professionals.

Progress on most recommendations has been mixed – with some but limited positive movement:

Advances in expanding enrolment and closing the gap between the numbers of girls and boys in primary school is tempered by a relative lack of progress in improving the quality of basic education and in the number finishing primary school and going on to post-primary education.

The spread of HIV/AIDS in Africa has been halted in many parts of the continent, but sub-Saharan Africa remains the worst affected region in the world.

There has been increased donor support to sexual and reproductive health services but overall underinvestment in reproductive health, contributing to the lack of progress in reducing child and maternal mortality.

There still much to be done to attract investment – including a massive need for better infrastructure.

The 2010 report is being launched at the British Museum on 13th September and will also be launched at the MDG Summit in New York on 20th September.



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Thursday, September 9, 2010

The U.S.overtaken by Sweden and Singapore in the World Economic Forum's competitiveness survey for 2010-11.

The U.S. has slipped to fourth position in global competitiveness this year from the second place it held last year, according to a report by the World Economic Forum (WEF).

Switzerland retains the top position with its excellent capacity for innovation and a very sophisticated business culture, says the Global Competitiveness Report 2010-2011, published on Thursday. Sweden and Singapore have overtaken the US to occupy second and third positions respectively.

The US ranking slipped to second last year with Switzerland making it to the top in global competitiveness.

“While many structural features that make its economy extremely productive, a number of escalating weaknesses have lowered the US ranking over the past two years,” the report said.

“In addition to the macroeconomic imbalances that have been building up over time, there has been a weakening of the United States’ public and private institutions, as well as lingering concerns about the state of its financial markets,” it added.

The report has found deepening weaknesses in certain areas in the US compared with last year.

While quality of institutional environment continues to decline, public's trust in politicians has dwindled.

The business community is concerned about the government’s ability to maintain arms-length relationships with the private sector. It feels that the government is spending its resources relatively wastefully, the report said.

Further, the report points to rising concerns over the functioning of private institutions with a noticeable decline in assessment of auditing and reporting standards including corporate ethics.

Macroeconomic instability in the US is the greatest area of weakness, said the report.

“Prior to the crisis, the United States had been building up large macroeconomic imbalances, with repeated fiscal deficits leading to burgeoning levels of public indebtedness; this has been exacerbated by significant stimulus spending,” the report points out.

In this scenario, the country needs a clear exit strategy to strengthen its competitiveness in future, the report states.

In Eurozone countries, Germany moves up to fifth place from seventh in 2009 while the UK has climbed one position to 12th after witnessing a continuous fall in ranking in recent years.

Among the BRIC economies, China continues to improve its competitiveness with its ranking moving up from 29th to 27th while Brazil (58th), India (51st) and Russia (63rd) have retained their positions.

“While emerging economies have, for the most part, bounced back to healthy growth, advanced economies face continuing difficulties such as persisting unemployment, weak demand, and spiraling debt, while still struggling with reforms in the financial and labor markets, among other challenges,” the report said.

The report measures the competitiveness of 139 countries taking into account various performance parameters like macroeconomic environment, health and primary education, goods and labour market efficiency, financial market development, technological readiness, business sophistication, innovation etc.

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