South Africa's New Government

The general response in South Africa and internationally to President Zuma's Cabinet appointments has been very positive. He got rid of most of the dead wood and introduced several exciting personalities. From a business point of view this is probably the strongest Cabinet South Africa has had in decades. Having said that, the financial/economic cluster of ministerial personalities is also very diverse in the views its members represent. There will be lots of debates. If anything Trevor Manuel's appointment in the presidency with responsibility for the National Planning Commission considerably enhances his influence; and Pravin Gordhan's appointment as Minister of Finance - given the brilliant job he did in overhauling the country's revenue service - has been welcomed by business. He certainly is Manuel’s intellectual equal.

A welcome member of this team is Robert Davies who has been promoted from deputy to Minister of Trade and Investment. He is energetic and imaginative and is going to make a world of difference to DTI, which has been one of the worst run ministries. Adding spice is Ebrahim Patel, a textile industry trade unionist, as Minister of Economic Development; and the appointment of Collins Chabaneto to ensure that everybody does their job - echoing Zuma’s sentiment that he will not tolerate sloth – is a welcome innovation. Tokyo Sexwale, although not formally in the financial/economic cluster, will offer a shoulder for business to cry on.

So generally speaking, as the London Financial Times put it two days ago: “The new South African Cabinet unveiled by Jacob Zuma at the week-end seems both to have calmed business fears he might lurch to the left, and inspired hope that ministers - including the finance minister Pravin Gordhan - will raise performance." But some specific random observations:

• Regrettable is the transfer of Naledi Pandor, one of the best Ministers of Education South Africa has had in years, to Science and Technology; and equally regrettable is the decision, while promoting Marthinus van Schalkwyk to full minister, to separate environmental affairs and tourism, leaving him with only tourism - as Van Schalkwyk has very deservedly established himself internationally as a serious environmentalist. And I am sorry not to see Mathews Phosa in the Cabinet. As an alternative, he would make a good High Commissioner in London.

• In the short time she was in the health portfolio, Barbara Hogan impressed everybody and, not surprisingly, the various health lobbies have expressed disappointment that she has been transferred from Health to Public Enterprises - also an important ministry but badly managed by successive incumbents. Hogan is a strong, creative person with highly developed management skills, and Health’s loss is Public Enterprises’ gain.

• The appointment of the Leader of the Freedom Front Plus, Pieter Mulder, as a deputy minister should not have caused the surprise it did. Zuma very consciously wooed the Afrikaners in the spirit of his consensual style and partly to counter COPE, whose Mosiuoa Lekota has a strong appeal within that community. Mulder’s portfolio of agriculture, forestry and fishing is most appropriate. Not surprising is Jeremy Cronin’s appointment as a deputy minister for transport. He is the least dogmatic, most intelligent and likeable communist I know. And every government should have its poet.

Beyond the personalities involved and the contribution they may be expected to make, the composition of the new parliament and Cabinet represent progress in the South African political system in two very important areas. Firstly, one of the big failures in continental African politics is the lack of politics as a vocation. Politics, after all, is an end in itself. People who go into politics do so for many different reasons. But in mature societies the main reason for choosing a political career is to gain power and influence, and so to contribute to the betterment of a society. That has been absent in Africa, where politics has mainly been the route to self-aggrandisement and wealth. Looking at the new Cabinet, I have a strong sense that the vocational element has been strengthened. Appointments have been made on ability to do the job rather than on contributions to the struggle, etc. Without wishing to ex aggerate this (because after all he has already made his fortune) Tokyo Sexwale’s commitment to politics and inclusion in the Cabinet has both practical and symbolic significance - in that he has stood down as executive chairman of his company Mvelaphanda and will no doubt resign his other many directorships.

The second important development arising out of the composition of the newly- elected Parliament and Cabinet is a strengthening of the middle ground of South African politics. As Anthony Sampson reminds us in his excellent memoir The Anatomist, the success of democracy depends very largely on the predominance of the middle ground and the consensus based on it: "In Britain both main parties roughly adhered to the post-war settlement, which included maintaining full employment, and allowing a mixed economy of private and public industries, accepting trade unions and maintaining high taxes to finance public services. They took similar attitudes to most British institutions, from nationalised industries to the army and the monarchy." The criticism so many people directed at Maggie Thatcher was that, as a self-declared “conviction" politician, she destroyed this consensus.

South Africa's successful transition from a minority race-dominated state to full democracy was possible because FW De Klerk and Nelson Mandela maintained the centre, the middle ground. Between them, and between the ANC and the National Party, they marginalised those on the left and on the right and held the centre. The middle ground disappeared after 1994, with the ANC’s total domination of Parliament, policy-making and almost all institutions of government. With the recent election, the establishment of COPE and its emergence as a major opposition in 4 provinces, and an impressive performance by the Democratic Alliance in winning the Western Cape and setting itself up as the official opposition in 3 provinces, coupled - and this is very important - with Jacob Zuma's commitment to a consensual style of leadership, we can begin to explore as South Africans a middle ground of shared beliefs and values.

Dr Denis Worrall
Email: kamreyac@omegainvest.co.za for all enquiries

Copyright 2008. Omega Investment Research. All Rights Reserved
www.omegainvest.co.za


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Read the victory speech by Jacob Zuma

ANC President Jacob Zuma addressed political parties and guests at the IEC centre in Pretoria after the announcement of the official election results. Here is the full text of his speech...

Ladies and gentlemen... We have come to the end of a vibrant election campaign. The huge voter turnout has indicated the value attached by our people to the right to vote and to the constitutional and democratic way to change or renew a government's mandate.

We congratulate the Independent Electoral Commission for once again delivering a good and efficient election. They always rise to our expectations and make our nation proud. Where there were glitches, they were attended to very quickly.

The elections were free and fair and we accept the results. They were attracted by our policies and the delivery of services in the past 15 years, as well as the track record of this movement in working to build a better South Africa since 1912.

We do not take the mandate lightly, we know the responsibility that comes with it. We also thank our people who voted for the ANC for the first time in this election. We assure you that your vote was not misplaced. We thank ANC cadres, supporters and volunteers for their excellent work across the length and breadth of our country. This is your victory.

To those South Africans who did not vote for the ANC, we will form a government that takes care of your needs to the best of our ability. Working together we will make it a government for all South Africans.

The new president of the Republic will be a president for all, and he will work to unite the country around a programme of action that will see an improvement in the delivery of services. He will strive to turn the climate in the country into a positive and relaxed one, that makes people free to be creative and work hard to improve their lives and the economy of the country.

Now that the election is over, we must enter a new era of hope and progress. We must enter a period where we bury mistrust, uncertainty, pain and tension, and begin a new chapter of harmony and collaboration. We cannot afford to dwell on the negatives. We have gone through a difficult period over a few years; it is now time to put it all behind us. We must enter a period in which South Africa reclaims its position and image as a thriving nation, which can overcome all its difficulties, and which is able to put the country first above sectional and party political interests.

As the ANC, we will build on the huge mobilisation success of our election campaign. We will build on the excitement around the ANC brand and policies. The ANC victory is an endorsement of our policies and programmes. But more than that, it is a victory for the country's Constitution, which we will always uphold, promote and defend. We reiterate that the Constitution is not under threat from the ANC. It has never been.

Our resounding victory is a celebration for people from all walks of life who helped to shape our Manifesto which will now become government's programme of action for the next five years.

We thank women, the youth, black professionals, minority groups, workers, artists and entertainers, traditional leaders, religious leaders and many sectors and individuals who made inputs into this Manifesto. There will be no surprises in the next administration's programme of action.

The electorate has endorsed our call for an equitable, sustainable and inclusive growth path that will bring decent work and sustainable livelihoods.

We have scored a victory for a better education system, better health care, safer and secure communities, and rural development.

We will make our country one that creates an enabling environment for women to develop, thrive and be successful. Let me emphasise that we remain committed to every word we uttered during the election campaign. We were serious when we said we would improve the pace and quality of service delivery, that we will appoint competent people to government, and that we will be tough on non-performance.

The incoming Cabinet will be required to turn the public service into an efficient, effective and very caring machinery that will respond effectively to the needs of our people. We were serious when we said we want to maintain direct contact with the citizens.

We will not be a government that is out of touch with its people. A cabinet lekgotla, scheduled for towards the end of May, will turn the Manifesto into a programme of action which will have clear time frames and deliverables. This will then be communicated to the nation in the State of the Nation address scheduled for early in June. We congratulate all opposition parties on a hard fought election campaign.

Now, we must work together and unite our people. We may disagree on how to bring about a better life for all, but what unites us is the fact that this country belongs to all of us, black, white, coloured and Indian equally.

We will need to work together on issues that are in the national interest, on which there is no need to compete or permanently bicker. We will work with all parties in Parliament to deepen the oversight role of Parliament. Together we must promote and defend the integrity of our State Institutions, including the judiciary and law enforcement agencies, and the Chapter 9 institutions.

We will work with all parties. We will need to do more to elevate our national days, such as the forthcoming Freedom Day, into inclusive, serious and meaningful occasions, which are instruments of nation building.

We intend to work with all parties and sectors to promote our sports development, starting with the 2010 Fifa Soccer World Cup. We must work tirelessly together to make the Confederations Cup in June and the World Cup next year phenomenal successes.

The World Cup provides tremendous opportunities for our country. We want to ensure that the tournament leaves a proud legacy that our children and our communities will enjoy for many years to come, and which contributes to the long term development of the country. We are convinced that we will make a success of the tournament and that we will impress the world with our abilities as a host for an event of this magnitude.

South Africa has played a key role in international affairs since 1994. We will ensure continuity in that regard. We will work with the African Union and SADC, as well as with other regional blocs, to promote sustainable development, peace and security. We will continue with efforts to find lasting solutions in Zimbabwe, Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Western Sahara, Somalia and other flashpoints.

We applaud the progress made in Zimbabwe and with our neighbours and comrades well on the way forward. We congratulate the Burundians on progress made thus far in the quest for lasting peace. We welcome the announcement by the rebel group FNL that it will now lay down arms and participate in the democratic process in that country.

We will strengthen our participation in multilateral institutions, including the United Nations. We will further deepen our relationship with the developed North as well as our role in the South-South dialogue programmes. We are concerned about the potential impact of the global economic crisis.

We will work with all stakeholders, especially business and labour, to find ways to prevent and cushion our people against job losses and other difficulties that may arise. As we prepare for the transition into a new administration, our message to South Africans is that we will remain true to our undertaking to build a caring, inclusive, listening and responsive government.

South Africa needs a government that fully understands what else needs to be done to reverse our apartheid past, building on the successes of the past 15 years. The ANC, working together with all our people, will form such a government.

Working together, we will do much more to build a better life for all our people. I thank you.

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South Africa - What the ANC's victory means

The ANC is poised to win a convincing majority in national polls on Wednesday on the back of an effective electoral machinery and a resurgence in the populous province of KwaZulu-Natal.

But beneath the headline figures, which will likely see the party coming close to the critical two-thirds majority it so urgently wants, there are signs of an important change in the political landscape.

The ANC’s victory portends an arguably more significant realignment: a shift in the political landscape which could see the Democratic Alliance and Cope work closely together and so begin the work of crafting a governing alternative for future elections.

Cope galvanises ANC
The formation of Cope put the ANC in battle mode: it threw all its campaigning talent and tens of millions of rands into the campaign. ANC secretary general Gwede Mantashe, who spoke to the Mail & Guardian this week, predicted a two-thirds majority for his party and said the ANC strategy had been to protect its traditional support bases from the newcomer. The latest Ipsos Markinor poll, released this week, suggests the ANC will do well but that it will end with a 65% majority victory.

Mantashe denied organising events in areas where Cope events were planned. “It was a coincidence that we were always in the same area. The main issue was to contest and reassert the ANC in traditional ANC areas.”

Mantashe said the ANC’s election campaign had been successful because of its decision to do away with rival power centres in the party, loyal either to former president Thabo Mbeki or to ANC president Jacob Zuma.

“Many thought this would backfire and strengthen Cope. But as things unfolded, we became convinced it was the right decision.”

Mantashe acknowledged that Cope’s formation had an initial impact on the ANC, but said this was no longer true.

“We could not take the formation of Cope as a non-event. It distracted our programmes, but we went through that phase quickly and started focusing on ANC programmes.”

The South African culture of support for the underdog has proven to be the wind beneath the ANC’s wings: while the opposition is up in arms over the withdrawal of charges against party president Zuma, the campaign is likely to be boosted by his perceived victory.

The survey said Zuma’s legal woes have not affected his party and that only the controversial behaviour of the ANC Youth League and its president, Julius Malema, have cost it support.

One-third of voters polled said they would vote for an opposition party because of Malema, while 10% said they would not vote at all because of him. More than 50% of those polled said Zuma’s legal troubles will “make them more likely to vote for the ANC”.

Realignment
South Africa stands on the brink of a major political realignment, as opposition parties, particularly Cope and the DA, move quickly towards a cooperative relationship after next week’s elections.

While the elections are likely to set Cope and the DA on the road to convergence, there are also indications that the lesser parties, particularly the IFP and the UDM, will take a heavy hit at the polls.

Some analysts believe that the Zuma factor could push the IFP below 20% in its KwaZulu-Natal stronghold, from 48% in 2004.

Opposition leaders are already preparing to work together more closely to fight the ANC. The combined court challenge by the DA, Cope, UDM, ACDP and IFP to the National Prosecuting Authority’s decision to drop charges against Zuma could be a straw in the wind.

Cope second deputy president Lynda Odendaal confirmed that opposition parties are growing closer. “We have a more conciliatory approach, because we have the same issues. It makes sense for us to be closer,” she told the M&G.

The election is also likely to highlight a growing Zimbabwe-style divide between rural and urban voters, with the ANC pulling almost half of its votes from rural areas and the DA receiving almost 70% of its support from towns and cities.

Despite a vibrant and well-resourced election campaign, the ANC could lose its two-thirds majority in Parliament, preventing it from unilaterally altering the Constitution. The survey, gives the party a clear majority, with 64,7% nationally.

It predicted that the DA will drop to 10,8%, from 12,4%, while Cope will poll 8,9% and the IFP 2,7%.

Smaller parties such as the UDM and ID will also decline to 0,7% and 1,1% respectively.

Markinor polled 3 531 voters countrywide between February 24 and March 10 this year.

But the parties’ final vote-catching push this week will play an important role, as 4,2% of the electorate, or 900 000 votes, is still undecided. About 3,9% (800 000 voters) would not state their preference. Roughly 50 000 votes are needed for a party to secure one parliamentary seat.

A racial glass ceiling
Voting will continue to be mainly race-based, with 78,8% of black voters backing the ANC, while the majority of the DA’s votes come from whites (59,8% of whites sampled), coloureds (35,1%) and Indians (29,6%).

About 22,2% of coloureds surveyed will vote for Cope and 13,7% of whites, suggesting Cope is the only party likely to break racial patterns of electoral support.

The survey showed that the ANC is the party of choice for most rural voters, while Cope and DA support is concentrated in the metros.

Markinor found 69,7% of DA votes come from urban voters in areas such as Pretoria, Cape Town, Durban, Johannesburg, Port Elizabeth and the East Rand.

DA leader Helen Zille campaigned nationally, but the party focused on the Western Cape, where Zille has a strong presence as Cape Town mayor.

And the parties think?
Assessing their own chances, political parties are, predictably, more optimistic than the survey.

Cope is convinced it will take between 15% and 20% of the national vote. Its first deputy president, Mbhazima Shilowa, told the M&G the party wants to govern in six provinces -- Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Northern Cape, Limpopo, Gauteng and North West -- on its own or in coalition.

The party has given up on KwaZulu-Natal and the Free State, despite president Mosiuoa Lekota and secretary general Charlotte Lobe hailing from the latter province.

Cope expects its best election result in Limpopo, where it estimates it will take 42% and be placed to lead a coalition government. An earlier Markinor survey found 30% backing in Limpopo.

In the Western Cape the party is aiming for 25% and claims to have strong support in black and coloured townships.

The DA is likely to be the province’s majority party, while falling short of an absolute majority -- meaning that coalition rule with smaller parties is likely there.

In the Northern Cape Cope expects to win 35% of the vote, making it the official opposition. It expects a similar outcome in Mpumalanga.

In the Eastern Cape, once considered a Cope stronghold, a recent spate of by-election losses and the defection of regional Cope leaders to the ANC have hurt its support.

Mantashe said the ANC would use the Siyanqoba (Victory) rally, taking place simultaneously at two stadiums at the weekend, to send a clear message to “right-wing” elements out to destroy the ANC and Zuma.

Source: Mail & Guardian Online

MMANALEDI MATABOGE, MANDY ROSSOUW AND MATUMA LETSOALO | JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA

http://www.mg.co.za/article/2009-04-17-what-the-ancs-victory-means

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South Africa - THE ANC GOVERNMENT: TWO VIEWS

3 April 2009

By their very nature, general elections represent an end and a beginning: the end of one term and the beginning of another; and as opposing politicians do battle against each other, the election, and the changes which this could represent, almost demands that political commentators, editorial writers and columnists offer their audiences assessments of the term that is ending, and their expectations, hopes and fears for the term about to begin. And this all happens in a very feverish atmosphere.

It is against this background that I am reproducing Max Du Preez's column from the Argus newspaper of 19 March 2009. He damns the ANC government - some will say he is over harsh. But many will agree with his sentiments. Of particular relevance, however, is that these are Max Du Preez's views. Max was probably the National Party governments' most trenchant critic – especially being an Afrikaner. In fact, the government of PW Botha tried their damnest to frustrate him. He is therefore a significant commentator on current affairs with considerable influence, both domestically and internationally.

I personally don't accept the overall message of this particular column. Very simply, South Africa and its people are much bigger and more enduring than the ANC. But I wanted somebody in the ANC to respond specifically to Max's column and am delighted to publish Jeremy Cronin's contribution. Most South Africans know who Jeremy is. But for the benefit of our many international readers - Jeremy Cronin is a Member of Parliament, ANC National Executive Council member and Deputy General Secretary of the South African Communist Party. He happens also to be a poet of some note.

“ANC apparatchiks ‘didn’t struggle to be poor’ – by Max du Preez
I am going to say something today that I was so sure for so long I would never say; something that I told many an audience over more than a decade would never happen: corruption has become systemic, has become a part of our culture in South Africa.

We have now become like Angola and Nigeria. Bribery, theft of public money, tender fraud and general racketeering are no longer aberrations condemned by society, they’re accepted as normal.

What I thought was an almost understandable human weakness of “its now our turn”, a sense of entitlement after the end of the struggle against apartheid, has moved on to become an integral part of how our state and our ruling party operate.

This is why pollsters tell us a sizeable chunk of ANC supporters believe the allegations of criminal behaviour against their leader, Jacob Zuma, may well be true, yet they will still vote for him.

This is why I won’t be surprised if the reports that all charges against Zuma will be dropped, eventually prove to be true.

What the hell, why not appoint Tony Yengeni Minister of Finance?

It was when I was told that Parliament spent hundreds of thousands of taxpayers’ rands to close the door on the Travelgate scandal and that 60 MP’s got away with stealing from their voters that it finally dawned on me that we had moved beyond a tipping point with corruption.

It meant that there is now no possibility left of claiming back the millions lost through the dishonesty of the MPs and travel agents. It means the ANC is condoning the fact that members voted into Parliament by the citizens steal from Parliament without any sanction.

Yes, I know, I was naïve.

I was naïve, as white racists told me thousands of times, to believe the liberation movement would have higher ethical standards than the evil apartheid regimes of Verwoerd, Vorster and Botha.

The ANC apparatchiks clearly didn’t “struggle to be poor”.

Perhaps it is true that they fought for power, perhaps even freedom, but certainly not for a decent and moral democracy.

Of course, the signs have been there for a very long time.

But suddenly the evidence that the ANC has the cancer of corruption growing in its very heart has become overwhelming.

Like putting someone found guilty of fraud and unlikely to withstand a legal challenge to her candidature at number five on the electoral list – someone who had earlier been convicted of the kidnapping of a young boy who died a horror death shortly afterwards. Winnie Madikizela-Mandela.

Like tasking another fraudster who is not allowed to take up a seat in Parliament, Tony Yengeni, to lead the ANC’s election campaign in the Western Cape.

Like refusing, in the face of over-whelming suspicion of possible dirty dealings, to order a review of the release on medical parole of the man found guilty of bribing the leader of the ANC.

Virtually every week now a new scandal breaks of senior ANC personnel or top bureaucrats committing fraud or theft or bribery or nepotism.

ANC leaders condemn corruption in public statements, but few crooks in the party ever suffer any consequences.

And all this happens in the dark shadow cast by the massive and massively corrupt arms procurement deal which the government and the ANC refuse to have investigated properly.

Andrew Feinstein, a former ANC MP and member of Scopa, wrote a damning book about the arms deal scandal with first-hand evidence of gross wrong-doing.

But he might as well not have bothered – it had no effect.

We hear former president Thabo Mbeki had meetings with French arms traders, but he simply can’t remember.

We hear he received $22 million from the arms dealers and gave most of it to the ANC’s election fund, but no one investigates that any further. Just like Oilgate.

One of the top men in the South African Communist Party stole a paper bag with R500 000 in cash in it that was donated to the party, but nobody gets prosecuted.

We make a big hullabaloo out of ANC spokesman Carl Niehaus’s dishonest behaviour, but let’s be honest: his only real sin was that he got caught.

We’re in trouble, we really are.”

“The danger in delusions of grandeur – by Jeremy Cronin
I generally enjoy Max du Preez’s feisty columns. They are not always accurate, but they are never boring. However, there is also a predictable rhythm about them. Over the years, du Preez has tracked between bubbly euphoria and abject despair. Not infrequently, these zigzags occur, back and forth, between one week and the next (which is why, I guess, his column is called “Maximum Headroom” – he needs it).

If this manic behaviour were confined to a handful of media commentators, we could put it down to the competitive demands of weekly journalism, the need to say something truly big every week. But du Preez’s columns are symptomatic in other ways. They reflect something about our national psyche.

The popular (and global) portrayal of post-apartheid SA, as welcome as it might have been, was always over-cooked - the “South African miracle”, “the rainbow nation”, “the winning nation”. This provoked all manner of hubris on our part. Yes, of course, the negotiated transition to democracy was an immense and collective South African achievement, but much remained (and still remains) to be done. In the mid-1990s, a half-dozen Western leaders (Francois Mitterrand, among them), in trouble with their domestic electorates, flew out for a photo-opportunity with our global icon, Nelson Mandela. Nothing wrong with that, but again we were encouraged to believe that behind the photo-opportunity lay an eager avalanche of Marshall Aid.

After Mandela, Thabo Mbeki continued to nurture elevated expectations of being able “to punch above our weight”. He envisaged SA leading an imminent African Renaissance.

The danger in delusions of grandeur is that, when reality bumps into your script, you are liable to move into denialism (about AIDS or Zimbabwe), or blame some improbable conspiracy (“it’s the West”, or the “ultra-left”), or you plunge into an overwrought and generalising post-colonial despair (“we are just like the rest of Africa”).

Which brings me specifically to Max du Preez’s recent column. It is a litany of woes ostensibly showing that the ANC and its support base are thoroughly venal, “we have now become like Angola and Nigeria”. (Why are these the negative references and not, say, Enron, WorldCom, Arthur Andersen, or, in the light of recent scandals, Wall Street itself?)

Du Preez’s list of examples of supposed ANC moral laxity is a mixture of part truth and plain error. On a minor note, Tony Yengeni is not leading the ANC’s Western Cape election campaign. “One of the top men in the SACP” (a reference to Blade Nzimande) stole a paper bag with R500,000 in cash” we are told. In reality, it was an accusation (two black plastic bags, by the way) made by a fraudster currently behind bars. Nzimande voluntarily opened personal and family accounts to the police. Absolutely no evidence was found for this libellous accusation. But who cares? After all, Nzimande looks like he could be Angolan.

Space permitting, there’s more in detail that might be said about du Preez’s other allegations. But, yes, there are challenges we confront in regard to corruption. These challenges are within the ruling party and indeed in other sectors too – as recent excellent work done by our Competitions Commission into big corporates has unveiled.

The ANC, like SA at large, is not an out-of-this-world model of perfection. But nor are we on the brink of a ground zero dystopia. The real story of our times is to be found, not in some fictional paper bag, but in the relative durability of our economy and democratic institutions. In the recent period, we have seen the recall of a serving president without the remotest hint of “civil war” (a ludicrous prediction made at the time by Archbishop Tutu), a noisy but typical break-away from a ruling party in power now for 15 years, and a robust but peaceful electoral campaign. Our economy is doing better than most in the midst of the current bleak global situation. We are a pretty average country, with our strengths and weaknesses. Let’s honestly admit to both…and then let’s try to avoid hyperbolic mood-swings.”

Dr Denis Worrall
Email: kamreyac@omegainvest.co.za for all enquiries

Copyright 2009. Omega Investment Research. All Rights Reserved
www.omegainvest.co.za

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CRY AGAIN FOR BELOVED SOUTH AFRICA ?

Jacob Zuma's rise raises questions about its course.

PROVO, UTAH - In 2010, South Africa will use the World Cup soccer games to "come out" and showcase itself, as did China recently with the Olympic Games.

Some 500,000 visitors from around the world, with battalions of print and TV journalists, will descend on South Africa for six weeks, as games are played in cities around the country.

They will experience the incredible beauty of Cape Town, the pulsating energy of Johannesburg, the balmy subtropical climate of Durban.

They will find an integrated, multi-racial society that is a far cry from the horrors that once beset the country under apartheid.

They also may very well face a nation whose leadership is in question, and whose future direction is uncertain.

This is the consequence of a shake-up in recent days that has toppled the moderate post-apartheid leadership of Nelson Mandela, and his successor Thabo Mbeki, and introduced Jacob Zuma as the probable new president to assume office in 2009.

Like Mr. Mandela and Mr. Mbeki, Mr. Zuma was imprisoned by apartheid's white supremacy government, although for fewer years than Mandela's 27 behind bars. But whereas Mandela emerged amazingly unembittered, and preached reconciliation with South Africa's white minority, Zuma, president of the African National Congress (ANC), is a forceful trade unionist whose charisma sits well with the militant left wing of the organization. The ANC received the lion's share of credit for bringing apartheid down and now, although linked in an alliance with unions and an ineffectual Communist party, basically controls the government.

In the years after the demise of apartheid, Mandela, as president, preached racial harmony at home and achieved international stature as a statesman of wisdom and vision. When he stepped down in 1999, Mbeki, although far less glamorous, became a reliable successor to extend the Mandela era of moderation.

Zuma is far more controversial. His sexual escapades have made headlines. He has been formally charged with corruption, although a judge recently cleared him on procedural, not substantive, grounds. Should charges against him be renewed, that might complicate but not necessarily deny his ascendancy to the presidency next year. Following Mbeki's ouster by the ANC last month, the ANC installed its deputy leader, Kgalema Motlanthe, as a caretaker president until 2009 elections.

South Africa is the most industrialized nation on the African continent. It is rich in gold and diamonds. An black middle class has emerged and prospered under black political rule.

But many more millions, who perhaps had unrealistic expectations of what the transition from white to black rule would mean for them, remain in primitive housing, without electricity, and without jobs. One consequence has been a shocking crime wave in which disappointed African have-nots seize cars and household possessions from the haves, both black and white.

It has been my good fortune to have connections with South Africa and great South Africans for many years.

When I was a boy in Britain during World War II, my father venerated Jan Christiaan Smuts, the Afrikaner leader who brought South Africa into the war on the allied side over the objections of some of his fellow Afrikaners. Our family was commanded to silence whenever Smuts spoke on the BBC.

After the war, as a teenager fresh from England, I was drilled by my first editor, Alex Hammond. He was a white South African who believed becoming a journalist was rather like entering the priesthood ("You will live, breathe, dream this newspaper, and maybe we can make a journalist of you.")

Years later, as a foreign correspondent covering South Africa in the apartheid era, I would stroll with Alan Paton, the famous author of "Cry, the Beloved Country," through his exquisite flower-filled garden, as he talked of his hopes for a South Africa he would never see.

When I left Africa for another assignment, I went to say goodbye to Albert Luthuli, the then ANC leader, at his home in Zululand. He was a man of remarkable compassion and peace, despite the indignities to which he had been subjected. "How will it go?" I asked. Sadly, he told me that while he sought accommodation with the white regime, he could not much longer restrain his young black men from violence.

Then there was Stanley Uys, the country's leading political journalist, who deplored the excesses of his fellow Afrikaners. He had a wry sense of humor. Our phone conversations were monitored by the police Special Branch and Stan delighted in giving them ridiculously misleading information.

And Aggrey Klaaste, editor of the largest black newspaper, who dreamed that one day South Africa would become the industrial and economic engine for raising up all of Africa.

South Africa has come far down the road to multiracial concord and promise that such men hoped to see. It would be tragedy indeed if new leaders made us again cry for the beloved country.

• John Hughes, a former editor of the Monitor, is a professor of international communications at Brigham Young University. http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/1002/p09s02-coop.html