Monday, November 24, 2008

The Axis of Commerce - $3 to $4 billion worth

The biggest business story in the Middle East has a dark side. Christopher S. Stewart investigates how U.S. companies are using Dubai as an illegal conduit into Iran.

The ship’s captain asks if I’m looking to smuggle something. We’re standing alongside a busy stretch of Port Saeed, on Dubai Creek, which is not actually a creek but a mucky Palmolive-green waterway, trash-strewn and oily, that stretches about eight miles through a thicket of shiny skyscrapers before draining into the Persian Gulf. It’s March, the sun is blasting down; the air is redolent of diesel fuel. The captain’s name is Khaled, and he’s headed to Bandar Abbas, Iran—about 100 miles northeast, nine hours by sea. “We’re leaving in a week,” he says.

The question of smuggling isn’t so far-fetched. It comes up a lot as I walk around and talk to the sailors. There are rumors of captains moving weapons, cigarettes, drugs, even nuclear equipment. Khaled, an Iranian former taxi driver with a mashed nose and tobacco-stained teeth, points at his 60-foot dhow. It’s flat-bottomed and has a swooping bow, a glassed-in wheelhouse, and a bashed-up hull that gives it the appearance of having done battle. Dozens of others are moored four and five feet deep, mostly destined for Iran. The scene is chaotic, with swinging cranes, fast-moving cargo trucks, and hundreds of dockworkers handling mountains of boxes and household appliances.

Khaled moves in close and then makes a confession: “I have many American products on my boat,” he says. Of the dozens of boxes rising above the gunwales, he calculates, about half hold American goods—and all are headed to Iran, despite a firm U.S. trade embargo meant to choke the life out of the so-called rogue state.

Dubai chart

Khaled’s cargo, however, is either unmarked or simply reads u.a.e.  His boss had the American goods repackaged when they arrived at the Dubai shipping terminals Jebel Ali and Port Rashid “to keep things quiet.” Other portside captains are less discreet. I see boxes of Carrier air-conditioning units and cartons of Crest toothpaste, and farther down the row are boxes labeled black & decker and coca-cola, along with stacks of Goodyear tires. I also spy a pallet of new Hewlett-Packard All-in-One printers, probably 200 of them, and another of Xerox copiers. When I ask a different Iranian captain about all these things going to America’s enemy, he responds, “It’s business, but please don’t tell your president.”

Despite sanctions aimed at stemming the sales of U.S. products to Iran, the goods are still getting there. U.S. sanctions were first imposed against Iran in 1979, during the hostage crisis. The current embargo dates back to 1987, though it has since been tightened, and U.N. sanctions have been added. U.S. companies are forbidden to sell goods to Iran or knowingly provide them to a company that will sell them to Iran, with a few exceptions, including medical supplies. The rules are enforced by the U.S. Treasury and Commerce Departments, and violations carry civil as well as criminal penalties. Although American companies aren’t allowed to send goods directly to Iran, the U.A.E. does not impose the same limitations on its local distributors. Over time, that loophole has spawned what many agree is a decidedly murky trade, operating mainly under the public’s radar. The business is estimated to be worth billions of dollars annually, much of which goes directly to the bottom line of American companies. Each year, the U.S. sends more goods to Dubai, and Dubai, in turn, sends more goods to Iran. But the scope of the business isn’t really clear without a trip to Iran.

Three days later, I’m in Tehran. Much of the time, the metropolis is shrouded in a steely haze produced by the horrendous and perpetual traffic jams that snarl the streets. One of my first stops is the Capital Computer Complex, in the affluent northern part of the city. The seven-floor mall is a warren of stores with wall-to-wall electronics, everything up-to-the-minute. Some of the products are from Japanese and Chinese manufacturers, but a lot of them are American: Dell laptops; Apple iPods, MacBooks, and iPhones; H.P. handhelds; Palm Pilots; Kodak cameras; Microsoft software; and Western Digital hard drives.

In other parts of the city are Black & Decker stores with signs in both English and Farsi and shops selling the same H.P. printers I saw in Dubai. There are pharmacies stocked with Head & Shoulders, the newest Gillette Fusion razor, and more flavors of Crest than I have seen in my neighborhood store in New York City.

What I learn in a week in Iran can be summed up in a conversation I have with an older man in a store selling H.P. printers.

“We like America,” the man tells me, “just not American politics.”

“But where does all this American stuff come from?” I ask.

“It comes from Dubai,” he says. “Everything.”

“But how does it get here?”

“Are you C.I.A.?”

Dubai, one of seven emirates, sits in a particularly fractious part of the Middle Eastern sandbox, with Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia nearby. But when you’re in Dubai, it doesn’t feel at all like you’re in one of the world’s most dangerous regions. That’s part of the reason for its success. In a few short decades, the rulers of the sheikdom—the Maktoum family, now led by Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, who is both ruler of Dubai and prime minister of the United Arab Emirates—have transformed what was essentially a vast, windswept desert into a major commercial entrepĂ´t and financial hub that the world can’t stop talking about.

The older part of the city, with its narrow streets and sun-beaten buildings, radiates out from the creek. The futuristic, slightly theme-parkish newer section rises from Sheik Zayed Road, a busy 12-lane highway, along which a line of unusually shaped glass skyscrapers, many still under construction, stand like a single row of toothpicks stuck in the sand.

Some of the grander places in Dubai have come to reflect the emirate’s outsize ambitions. The tallest building in the world (158 floors and still counting) is being built next door to the world’s largest mall (1,200 stores), and it has the world’s first self-described seven-star hotel (room rates start at $1,300), the world’s biggest amusement park (twice the size of Disney World), and the world’s largest man-made archipelago.

Dubai is a place of transients, having grown from a mostly indigenous population of about 275,000 in the late ’70s to
1.5 million today; the vast majority of those people are not natives. Many are here for business (there are no income taxes), while others come to see the sparkling city and enjoy the abundant sun. Along the streets are advertisements with slogans like discover life in a whole new light and buy me, change your life forever. These could just as well be the mantras of Dubai.

The emirate is modern, fast-moving, and thoroughly capitalistic, and it operates accordingly. Though its people are predominantly Muslim, Dubai is less interested in propagating radical Islam than in making loads of cash. The U.A.E. is also one of America’s most important allies: Dubai is home to a major U.S. naval port and is a source of regional intelligence. “Dubai is motivated by self-interest and business opportunities,” says David Stockwell, a partner in the law firm Bracewell & Giuliani. “Dubai is prepared to do business with fierce abandon—not weighed down by ideologies or past grievances. It is the best hope of the Arab world, something other than conflict and strife.”

There is, however, a dark side to this desert triumph. Laborers from the developing world, some of whom live 10 to a room in concrete camps, are, for the most part, building the city. Russian and Indian mobsters are said to fly in regularly with bags of cash. And the sex trade—its workers trafficked from places like sub-Saharan Africa, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia—is tolerated in high-end hotel bars, even though prostitution is illegal.

But the most astonishing secret, the one that Dubai would most like to keep under wraps, is how the emirate has transformed itself into the chief transit point for American goods entering Iran, allowing some of America’s best-known companies to skirt the U.S. embargo by routing their goods through the emirate’s ports.
Take a look at Dubai’s docks and the shelves in Iran, and it is relatively easy to figure out which American companies are bending the rules, either knowingly or unknowingly.

As far back as 1994, trade officials estimated that more than a quarter of the $1 billion worth of American goods entering Dubai were then shipped to Iran. During the past few years, despite growing tensions in the Middle East, something strange happened: The flow of American contraband on its way to Iran didn’t slow down—it surged.

Last year, the U.S. shipped almost $11.6 billion worth of goods to the U.A.E., the bulk of which went to Dubai. That’s a 230 percent increase over the past five years. Experts estimate that between 30 and 40 percent of those goods—$3 billion to $5 billion worth—are then exported, though there are no official numbers. Iran, meanwhile, has become the U.A.E.’s No. 1 trading partner.

Underlying the entire operation is an informal “Don’t ask, don’t tell” philosophy, focused on maximizing profits no matter what. Thanks to an almost perfect convergence of American and local business interests, this approach has essentially turned the emirate into a global center for sanctions-busting. Some exports are innocuous, like refrigerators and stoves; others, such as high-speed computer chips, military hardware, and nuclear components, are more ominous.

“I have to say the U.A.E.—and Dubai in particular—has become a significant hub that allows U.S. companies to circumvent or mitigate sanctions,” says Victor Comras, a retired U.S. diplomat and consultant on sanctions and terrorism financing.

“It is a huge hole,” says Mary O’Brien, a former special agent for the Commerce Department, who investigated Dubai’s commercial netherworld. She adds, “Some of what is going on is clearly illegal.”

Earlier this year, the Government Accountability Office released “Iran Sanctions: Impact in Furthering U.S. Objectives Is Unclear and Should Be Reviewed,” a report that spotlighted transshipment in the U.A.E. as a “considerable problem.” President Bush later flew to Abu Dhabi and Dubai with a request that the U.A.E. reconsider its business dealings with Iran. While Bush issued a subtle warning, Stuart Levey, the U.S. Treasury undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, was more direct. In Dubai last year, he told a group of bankers and executives, “Those who are tempted to deal with targeted high-risk actors are put on notice.”

But will Dubai actually change? The game is making the sheikdom rich and powerful. “They’re reluctant to go too far, in part out of fear of antagonizing Iran, but mainly because of the bottom line,” says Michael Jacobson, a former Treasury Department official who is now a senior fellow at the Washington Institute’s Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence. “This is the way they are making their money, and this is how they are putting themselves on the map.”

It is difficult to separate the rise of Dubai from the fall of Iran. In 1980, not long after the emirate began opening its ports, Iran entered a war with Iraq; seven years later, the U.S.—worried about Iran’s burgeoning nuclear program and its soft spot for terrorists—leveled its first trade embargo. Dubai began to blossom. With its secure and open business environment and the U.A.E.’s impressive oil reserves, the emirate attracted tens of thousands of Iranian entrepreneurs. As legitimate trade increased, so did smuggling. Much of the U.S. merchandise that had once gone directly to Iran was suddenly being rerouted through Dubai. Iranian traders bought what they needed in the emirate and then sent it home.

Jebel Ali became the best-known terminal. Its inner basin is about two miles long, with 71 berths for cargo ships and tankers. It was probably Dubai’s first expression of its grand ambitions. After completing the terminal, the sheiks built a free-trade zone around it in the desert and dubbed it the Jebel Ali Free Zone, or Jafza; the zone was unique in the region at the time. Free-trade zones operate under special conditions meant to facilitate trade: Tariffs are waived, taxes are nonexistent, and regulatory oversight is minimal. In other words, it’s a world of exceptions that exists outside of the ordinary stream of commerce.
The arrangement was especially well suited to businesses that wanted minimal bureaucratic hassle, but it was also perfect for the growing number of shifty operators angling to transport such goods as cigarettes, hard drugs, and counterfeit pharmaceuticals without being detected. (The European Commission insists that the U.A.E. is one of the major suppliers of fake drugs being smuggled into E.U. countries.)

By the late ’90s, however, Dubai was thriving, with shipping money being quickly reinvested in building a better trading infrastructure. Jafza expanded from 25 to 35,000 acres, becoming so sprawling that it requires its own map. When I visit one afternoon, I get lost for a half-hour, driving on roads that look identical and anonymous.

The sheiks made shipping an art form: A container could be unloaded and the goods flown out in less than four hours, an incredibly quick turnaround time. Along with tourism, traditional shipping was boosted as part of a plan to move the emirate away from a dependence on oil for its income. International companies, seeing a modern center between East and West, began to arrive, and more free-trade zones were created. Today, 19 are in operation and 10 more are in the works.

It didn’t take long for sanctions-busting to go mainstream. As more Americans moved to Dubai and took advantage of Jebel Ali, their goods followed, and the amount of U.S. cargo being reshipped to Iran expanded. Politically, it was an odd time for this to be happening. When Bill Clinton was in office, the general American attitude toward Iran was softer; the global war on terrorism had not yet begun, and stealth arrangements with our enemies were less of an issue. But all that changed when the twin towers came down and, to a greater degree, after President Bush declared Iran part of the “axis of evil.”

Yet the more severe our approach toward Iran has become, the more we seem to be doing business with the enemy. The first hints of the problem came when the U.S. Commerce Department dispatched O’Brien, an almost 20-year veteran of the agency, to the U.A.E. in December 2002. The world she uncovered was “mind-boggling,” she says. “Everyone knew things were going in and out, but after I’d been there not very long, I realized that the scope of the problem was beyond what we realized was going on. The kinds of things I saw were amazing.”

Although her focus was on items requiring export licenses to leave the U.S.—goods with potential military or high-tech applications—her probes painted a vivid picture of what she described as “embargo-busting.” Her job involved visiting local storefronts, factories, and offices in the free-trade zones and elsewhere around the emirates, asking to see the U.S. cargo that they’d received. She prodded traders, trying to understand the game. Some confessed that merchandise was being shipped to Iran. “This was where it was headed much of the time,” O’Brien says.

It was bewildering, layered work. Sometimes, incoming cargo hardly touched ground before being flown, shipped, or trucked back out. “Swing a dead cat, find a diversion,” O’Brien joked with colleagues.

As the months passed, O’Brien gradually came to see an industry built around embargo-busting, an intricate ecosystem of middlemen who massaged and enhanced the gray market and then profited from it, which in turn helped build Dubai. In addition to commercial goods, some dual-use products that could be used for military purposes were also slipping through the cracks. Many of the traders were Iranian. Occasionally, it was obvious that some worked directly with Americans; in one case, an Iranian business in the free-trade zone was buying medical supplies that didn’t qualify for exemption from the sanctions from a U.S. company a few doors down.

At the center of Iranian business in Dubai was—and is—Nasser Hashem­pour, a solidly built man with stiff black hair, who, in addition to running a trading firm, is deputy president of the Iranian Business Council in Dubai.

I sit down with Hashempour at his office one afternoon. He tells me about the importance of Iran to Dubai. “Iranians have a very big role here, and Dubai knows it.” Iranians have partnerships in about 9,500 businesses in the emirates, according to Hashempour, the bulk of which are involved in exporting. Some are connected to the Iranian government and military. There are 450,000 to 500,000 Iranians living in the U.A.E., with three-quarters of them in Dubai. The number of Iranians in Dubai has almost doubled in the past five years, and they account for about a quarter of the city’s total population. Iranians here also have a lot of money—estimates run as high as $300 billion in assets. Many Iranians would not be in Dubai, Hashempour says, if it weren’t for American policy.
By the time O’Brien made her last trip to Dubai, a two-week special-inspection project in the spring of 2006, imports from the U.S. had increased by billions of dollars, as had the stream of gray-market goods continuing on to Iran. When I tell O’Brien I heard that about 40 percent of U.S. cargo is being there, she says that figure represents “just what we can account for.”

Today, many share O’Brien’s belief that some American companies are intentionally using Dubai as a conduit into Iran. “They would have to be extremely stupid not to know that their products are going to Iran,” says Rochdi Younsi, the Middle Eastern analyst for the Eurasia Group ­in Washington. “They do know.”

“I think a majority of these companies are well plugged-in in Washington,” he continues. “In D.C., they are given mixed signals, but they have more reason to believe that the U.S. is not going to take any action against them. So they go ahead and do it.”

There are dozens of American companies involved in the gray market with Iran. In both Dubai and Iran, I see Apple, Black & Decker, Dell, Hewlett-Packard, Procter & Gamble, and Xerox. With the exception of Apple, all have offices in Dubai’s free-trade zones.

The website of H.P., the U.S. technology brand I find most often in Iran, lists U.A.E. “partners” from whom locals may buy its products. Although Anette Nachbar, an H.P. spokeswoman, says that the company “does not have operations­ in Iran” and complies fully with U.S. export laws, H.P. has partners in Dubai who are eager to do business with Iran.

I call a number of these U.A.E. partners of H.P. and ask if they ship printers to Iran. The first three are ready to make deals. Another company, Jumbo Electronics, says it can offer H.P. laptops and notes that if anything needs to be fixed that falls under warranty, there are many authorized H.P. service providers in Tehran. In Dubai, one distributor on the creek promises that he can get 200 All-in-One printers in two hours and ship them to Iran. “If anyone asks, I’m the end user,” he says, using the language of the U.S. sanctions. When I ask H.P. if the company knows this is going on, Nachbar responds, “We’re just not in a position to disclose more information.”

Dell also indicates that it doesn’t sell to Iran, but like H.P., the computer maker seems to be turning a blind eye when it comes to its distributors. Even though Metra Computers, one of a handful of local distributors listed on Dell’s website, says it can handle bulk orders to Iran, its contracts with distributors ban reselling to Iran. A Metra salesman says that the company can’t ship directly to Iran, but he knows of “many” third parties that “do that consistently.” He adds, “My objective is to make new customers. We are big-time into Dell.”

Black & Decker’s approach is slightly different. I find at least a half-dozen stores in Tehran selling the company’s tools. Some feature big billboards advertising the company as well as its latest drills and handsaws. In addition, Black & Decker’s website actually lists a store in Tehran. When I talk to Roger Young, a company spokesman, he explains that the Tehran store is unrelated to the parent company in the U.S. and that any business between Iran and Dubai, or anywhere else, goes through its “non-U.S. subsidiary”—another loophole in U.S. rules that allows companies to deal with a sanctioned country as long as there is no American oversight. So instead of moving through middlemen, Black & Decker products are sold in Iran through an unaffiliated foreign subsidiary.

When I press Young for more information about Black & Decker’s business in Iran, he says that the Middle East represents less than 2 percent of the company’s business.

Procter & Gamble is another corporation using non-U.S. subsidiaries for dealings with Iran. Rotha Penn, a company spokeswoman, explains, “Were we to stop this legitimate activity, it is likely that inferior, counterfeit products would be sold to consumers instead of the genuine brands.”

Recent U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings for both Procter & Gamble and Black & Decker make no reference to Iran.
Meanwhile, in a footnote to its most recent annual report, Xerox states that it terminated business ties with Iran in 2006 but still maintains local “legacy obligations.” The profits from the business, while declining, are robust—$7.7 million in 2007, down from $9.6 million the year before.

American firms, even those using proxies, don’t want to talk or even speculate about how their products traveled from Dubai to Iran, but the merchants I meet in Tehran are more open. At the Capital Computer Complex, a man who sells only Dell laptops and whose store has Dell boxes piled on the floor and stuffed onto shelves, admits that he ordered everything from Dell’s distributor in Dubai. Another man selling almost exclusively H.P. products tells me he did business through an office in Jebel Ali, while a man selling Apple iPhones, MacBooks, and iPods will say only that he has “relationships” in Dubai. (An Apple spokesperson says the company obeys U.S. laws.)

For the most part, American goods in Tehran are 20 to 40 percent more expensive than they are in America. An 8-gigabyte first-generation iPhone, for example, cost $400 in New York; at the Capital Computer Complex, after some haggling, it can be had for $700. A new Dell XPS 1M330 sells for $1,800, about $300 more than in the U.S.

The Iranian merchants say that most U.S. products land in Iran either at Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport or at Bandar Abbas, the biggest port city in southern Iran and the destination of many of the creek dhows. Bandar Abbas is a hot, flat, salty place that wouldn’t be much if it weren’t for the port and the Iranian naval base. From a boat in the Strait of Hormuz, I watch the dhows and tankers streaming in and out. At one point, I meet a captain whose ship, just in from Dubai, carries a half-dozen new American vehicles, including two Chevy Blazers.

It isn’t the volume of boats or the number of boxes piled on their decks that surprises me. It is the visible Iranian military presence. The port, tucked away in an inlet, is fortresslike, bristling with defenses. Double-engine speedboats buzz back and forth constantly, and armed men patrol the port entrance. We stare at the port for only a couple of minutes before our captain tells us we are being watched. “It’s time to go,” he says. “We are much too close.”

Although a shared culture and history connect the U.A.E. to Iran, the two countries are not natural partners. While Iran is Persian and its religion is primarily Shia Islam, the U.A.E. is predominantly Arab and Sunni and is closer in outlook to Saudi Arabia. In addition, Iran has a long-running dispute with the U.A.E. over three islands that Iran occupies.

The ruling sheiks of the U.A.E. are allies of both Iran and the U.S. They have said publicly that they support peace in the Middle East, but not everyone I speak to in Iran really believes that the sheiks want to end the contretemps, let alone seriously lobby the White House for U.S.-Iran rapprochement. The strife has been bad for Iran but very good for the emirates.

Yet as O’Brien notes, “The U.A.E. walks a fine line.” For years, it hadn’t had to make much of a political commitment to either country, priding itself on being politically agnostic and strictly focused on business. In the spring of 2006, however, its comfortable middle ground began to be threatened. Discussions between the U.A.E. and U.S. about the emirates’ trade with Iran led to heated public statements and threats of intervention from Washington. As tension between Iran and the U.S. flared in the spring of 2007, the U.A.E. promised to impose its own version of export controls, focused mainly on intercepting sensitive materials. The sheiks instituted the new law in August and, as if to demonstrate its commitment, 40 local companies said to be involved in illegal exports were shuttered and an Iran-bound freighter carrying “hazardous chemicals” was impounded.

It’s uncertain how much has actually changed. The Commerce Department notes that it is optimistic about the new controls, though it wouldn’t comment about its most recent inspections. Hashem­pour, however, says trading continues as usual. “If people want it, the goods will go to Iran.”
Even if Dubai does focus on sensitive goods, the broader issue remains unresolved. The sheikdom appears to avoid the conversation, and dealing with the question in the future may prove complicated. Some blame the U.S. for not taking a more punitive stance toward its own companies. The Treasury and Commerce Departments have each sent only one inspector to the U.A.E. And while penalties have increased for businesses discovered to be dealing directly or indirectly with Iran—with fines of up to $1 million for companies and potential prison time for individuals—proving guilt is particularly difficult. Which companies have shipped products knowing that they would end up in Iran, and which really have no idea?

It is an especially tough question to answer, with so many levels of middlemen and more than 700 American companies now operating in the emirates.

Between the two agencies, about two dozen cases were successfully prosecuted in the U.S. in 2007, but these certainly don’t appear to have offered a compelling reason for other companies to pull back.

This is Dubai’s conundrum. “If the U.S. is serious about shutting this business down and making sanctions effective,” the Eurasia Group’s Younsi says, it is “going to have to devote a lot more resources to this—not just enforcement and staff—but more diplomatic leverage on the U.A.E., pushing hard to get them to do this.”

Which raises a larger question: Does the U.S. really care about goods going to Iran? Is overlooking this trade a way of repaying Dubai for its friendship?

In February, Sheik Mohammed climbed into his private jet and headed to Iran. After meeting with the emir, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared that “the U.A.E. prime minister’s visit is proof that U.S. policies will not have any impact in the region,” according to the Asia Times. It was as though the sheik had not yet decided exactly how far the U.A.E. would take its promised reforms when it comes to trade with Iran.

In one of my last days in Dubai, I walk along the creek looking for anything suggesting that life in Dubai has altered, that the middlemen have been scared off, that U.S. companies have slowed shipments, or that anything has curtailed the trade.

I wander around in the sun for a while, hunting for a customs office, trying not to get taken out by trucks and men running around with boxes, some with American brand names and logos on their sides. Boxes are all over the place, mountains of them, and the dhows brim with sailors and workers. The first customs booth is locked and abandoned, but the second has some activity. Two men are washing two white S.U.V.’s, while two other men in immaculate white robes look on. One of the S.U.V.’s has a sticker reading v.i.p. on its rear window.

“It’s a beautiful day,” Ibrahim al-Rubati, the head of the station, observes as the port buzzes behind him. I say that they look busy, and he laughs. We talk about the hundreds of ships that come and go, to Somalia and to Iran. I mention all of the U.S. products flowing northeasterly. He nods, and his associate alerts the car washer to a smudge on a window.

“We make everything easy here,” Rubati says finally. “Things come and go fast.”

I ask if anything has changed as far as policy at the creek in the past year or so. He shakes his head. “Not here.”

It looks chaotic, I say. He nods again. “I don’t understand the political situation with U.S. and Iran. It is a sad time,” he says. “But we just make things easy, and the money comes from that. Whatever is happening outside of this country does not matter to us. This is Dubai.”
http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/international-news/portfolio/2008/08/13/US-Trades-With-Iran-Via-Dubai

US EXPORT COUNCIL PROVIDES ASSISTANCE TO US COMPANIES SEEKING ACCESS TO HIGH GROWTH MARKETS OVERSEAS. http://usexportcouncil.com/

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Projects worth $800bn under way in the UAE

Despite caution over future projects, $800 billion (Dh2.9 trillion) of projects are currently under construction in the UAE, according to a survey by Proleads, the research partner of The Big 5.

Though the analysis covers all industries, civil construction developments continue to dominate projects under way topped by Jumeirah Gardens, Dubailand, Palm Deira, Yas Island, and White Bay Umm Al Quwain.

Proleads is currently tracking in excess of 5,200 individual projects worth in excess of $4trn across the Middle East.

Its database lists more than 980 projects under some level of construction across all industries in the UAE.

"It is important to say that the $800bn of projects in this survey are all under construction," said Bernard Walsh, Managing Director of The Big 5 organizers dmg world media Dubai. "Despite caution over future projects, it emphasizes yet again that the huge projects under way in the UAE are increasingly at levels unmatched in other parts of the world as the economic slowdown affects markets worldwide."

The survey also ranked the top five owners, contractors, managers, financiers and architects involved in projects in the UAE.

It includes companies from the UAE, Belgium, the Netherlands, the United States, the United Kingdom, India and Australia among the top ranked in terms of the value of projects with which they are associated.

The tables are based on analysis of the active construction projects currently under way in the UAE across the oil and gas, petrochemical, civil construction and, power, water and industrial sectors and contained within the database of Proleads.

"As the region's biggest event for the building and construction industry we are delighted to unveil the biggest companies across the most crucial areas of project development," said Walsh.

In the tables, Dubai's Nakheel tops the big Project owners list; Jan de Nul, a Belgian dredging company is the number one contractor; US companies led by Hill International dominate project managers list; Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank is the leader in terms of project financiers; and Crema Bahramis Giordano, an Australian firm tops project architects with a development in the tiny emirate of Umm Al Quwain.

Meanwhile, local companies have affirmed their commitment to the event to address their niche markets or capture new business.

Anchor Allied's said its participation at the annual trade show comes at a time when the company is looking to expand its market presence and consolidate its leadership position in the region.

Anchor Allied is a subsidiary of M'Sharie and one of the largest manufacturer of adhesive tapes and specialty adhesives in the Middle East.

"Having set itself a revenue target of Dh 250 million within the next three years, Anchor Allied has been looking to strengthen its operations and increase its regional footprint," said Hussain Nalwala, Executive Director of Anchor Allied.

"Ensuring a strong presence at The Big 5 Show will enable us to explore new investment opportunities and pursue strategic alliances. Through our participation at the show, we are primarily seeking to increase awareness in the local and export markets as well as among the contracting community about the technical superiority and usable strengths of our products."

Again, to capitalise on the rising demand for steel structures, Emirates Building Systems (EBS), a subsidiary of Dubai Investments Industries and a regional leading company in the construction of high-rise steel buildings, announced yesterday that it will showcase its services and a wide array of products including hot rolled steel structures for multi-storied buildings and high-rise towers at the event.

Fouad Arwadi, General Manager Sales of Emirates Building Systems, said: "We expect our participation at this year's show to be particularly successful, as the exhibition comes at a time when demand for steel structures is on the rise across the region as a result of a shift in favor of steel structural frames amongst the real estate community. We look forward to establishing new relationships and reinforcing our market presence by capitalising on the opportunities offered by The Big 5 show."

In order to cater to the increased demand for steel structures in the Gulf region, EBS had recently completed the expansion of its factory in the UAE to take the company's annual production capacity to over 75,000 metric tonnes. EBS has also set up additional fabrication facilities in the GCC and the Subcontinent.

DuPont also confirmed that it will showcase innovative products at the event.

"These advanced concepts and materials are of particular interest to Middle East and Gulf where construction and real estate development continue to progress and evolve at a rapid and highly-competitive pace," said Andrew Holdsworth, Director Middle East.

"These materials extend the superior benefits that open new opportunities for architects and designers, and a refreshing experience for consumers in the Middle East and Gulf," said Tony Azzam, Business Manager, Building Innovations and Construction Industry Leader for Turkey, Middle East, Africa and Pakistan.

"The Middle East and Gulf market is gearing up to meet the residential, health, educational and recreational needs of its rapidly growing population. We are currently working on multiple innovative projects to enable customers reach new heights in architecture and construction of homes, healthcare, skyscrapers, airports, industrial buildings and offices."

Meanwhile Mammut Building Systems FZC (MBS), one of the region's largest manufacturers of pre-engineered steel buildings (PEBs), has announced that it will showcase part of a new range of products at exhibition. MBS is a subsidiary of Emaar Industries and Investments (EII).

"This is a perfect opportunity for MBS to demonstrate our product range to the many visitors that will come to The Big 5. We have grown rapidly since our inception in 1997 and the services and products we offer have differentiated us from the competition," said Bob Webster, Managing Director at MBS.

The company will introduce a new long span purlin G-2 (second generation). Unlike conventional purlins that have a maximum span of about eight metres, the new G-2 purlin can extend up to 12 metres or more.

It will also showcase a number of new products as well as some of its existing services.

The Big 5 show, the biggest fair for the construction industry and associated suppliers in the Gulf, opens today and will run until Friday.

Exhibition space has been completely sold out with the event taking up the entire space of the Dubai International Exhibition and Convention Centre.

By
Sona Nambiar Emirates Business 24/7

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Thursday, November 20, 2008

Middle East North Africa - Fast growing economies

INTERNATIONAL. Economies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are the fastest growing in the world with the Middle East east spearheading growth at 6.1% in 2008, Kuwait’s Global Investment House said yesterday.

Nominal gross domestic product, or GDP, in the MENA region is put at US$1,766 billion for 2007 and the International Monetary Fund expects the region’s nominal GDP to grow at a three-year compound annual growth rate of 20.4% to reach US$2,642 billion in 2009, Global Investment House said in a report.

“With limited disclosed exposure to the infected global financial markets, MENA banks have remained relatively immune to the worst that the subprime mortgage crisis and what the ensuing debacle had to offer,” Global Investment House said.

The medium-term outlook for the region, according to the IMF is generally favourable with Middle East expected to grow at 6.1% in 2008 and 5.3% while Africa expected to grow at 5.2% in 2008 and 4.7% in 2009.

The oil exporting countries in the MENA region have benefited from the oil surpluses built over the last couple of years. The aggregate current account surpluses of the MENA economies amounted to US$292 billion in 2007 and IMF expects the same to reach US$495 billion by end of 2008. Driven by the oil exports, external positions have continued to strengthen in 2008 with gross official reserves of the region increasing substantially.

Gross official reserves of the region have increased almost fivefold in the last five years, and are set to surpass US$1.0 trillion in 2008. Though oil prices have reduced by 58.5 %, from their peak this year at US$147 per barrel to US$61 per barrel as on 6 November 2008, it is likely that the production cuts by OPEC, increase in seasonal demand in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the economic stimulus packages announced worldwide should spruce up the demand and cause a rebound in the oil prices.

Diversifying

The regional economies are diversifying in order to reduce their dependence on oil. Non-oil sectors like construction, retail, transportation, and financial services have contributed significantly to growth.

According to an IMF working paper namely 'Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries', apart from their effect on fiscal policy, oil prices do not independently influence underlying non-oil output. As a result, fiscal policy tends to be pro-cyclical because it drives the output cycle. We can expect that the increase share of non-oil activities in the regional GDP should help sustain its economic activities and expansion plans without resorting to external debt.

National savings are expected to rise considerably in 2008, with the total fiscal surplus rising to 11% of GDP in 2008. This increase to the current level of 11.0% in a span is commendable, given the tremendous growth in GDP. All GCC countries have large current account surplus creating substantial liquidity. The aggregate MENA current account surplus has grown at a five-year (2003-2008) CAGR of 50.6% from US$64 billion in 2003 to US$495 billion in 2008. Owing to a weakness in oil prices, there could be a decline of about 18.0% in 2009 current account surplus, the same ending at US$406 billion.

High average oil prices and increased oil exports have resulted in strengthening of external positions in 2008, with gross official reserves of the region increasing substantially. Gross official reserves of the region have increased at a five-year (2003-2008) CAGR of 43.3% from US$180 billion in 2003 to US$1,087 billion in 2008. The external debt as a percentage of GDP has decreased substantially from 31.6% in 2003 to 21.4% on 2008. It is expected to drop even further in 2009 to reach 20.7% of the aggregate GDP of the MENA region.

MENA and especially the GCC region have enjoyed a virtuous and unparalleled economic growth in the recent years driven mainly by high oil prices, massive investments in infrastructure, and expansionary monetary policies. The rapid growth in the region was also accompanied by significant increase in rates of inflation. Inflationary tendencies were accentuated in the GCC region because of its necessity to reduce interest rates (in lock-step with interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve), high growth in money supply and high rents due to supply-side constraints in housing. The commodity price boom and dollar depreciation have also driven regional inflation higher due to increasing prices for key imported raw materials including metals and agricultural products. Moreover, the rising cost of labor in the real estate sector has also driven prices upwards.

Various efforts were taken by the countries in the region to overcome this situation. Saudi Arabia announced a series of measures which included: 50% reduction in fees collected by state-owned ports on imported commodities, government employees and pensioners would be paid 5% of their salaries as a 'high cost allowance' for three years, Kingdom’s cabinet also decided to increase allocations of social insurance by 10% and to continue subsidies for essential commodities.

To control increasing rents, the Saudi cabinet approved the urgent initiation of the General Housing Authority initiation of building low-cost housing units for which a sum of SAR10 billion has already been allocated from the Saudi budget for this purpose. UAE government is making sincere efforts to control inflation. In order to have a check on substantial rent hikes in the housing market, the UAE government introduced rent caps. This was first introduced in Dubai at 15% and then lowered to 5.0%. In Abu Dhabi rent cap is at 7.0% while in Ras Al Khaima and Fujairah at 15.0%.

Significant

However in the backdrop of recent developments in global market, Global Investment House said it expects inflation to come down. We have witnessed significant decline in global commodity prices including oil in recent weeks.

The decline in global food prices, strengthening of US Dollar against major global currencies and expected cool down in real estate markets will help in bringing down the inflation.

With limited disclosed exposure to the infected global financial markets, MENA banks have remained relatively immune to the worst that the sub-prime mortgage crisis and what the ensuing debacle had to offer. Ripples of the free-falling markets, worldwide, did take a toll on the local bourse which has lost substantial ground as yet, with little hope for any sudden respite.

Banks (mostly GCC banks) which derive an un-ignorable portion of their bottom-lines from capital gains on investment securities, felt the brunt of the inescapable situation. Banks in MENA are nevertheless well capitalized for any delinquency or erosion in value of investments as visible from the regulatory capital ratios.

FDI inflows into the MENA region have grown over the years and is expected to keep up its momentum in the coming years due to buoyant growth, competitive pressures, and improvements in business environments in most countries. However, constraining factors such as geopolitical risks, may keep flows below what they might otherwise be. It is expected that the bulk of the increase in global FDI will flow into developing countries.

The private sector is at the forefront of the beneficiaries of this new vision as the bulk of these new investments will be facilitated by GCC-based groups and finance houses. The destination for these investments would not only be the GCC itself, but the broader MENA region. Recent cross-border investments originating from the area have been in the range of billions of dollars. Saudi Arabia and UAE have been leading in Middle Eastern regions in terms of FDIs whereas Egypt has been at the forefront among North African countries.

In the coming years, hundreds of billions of dollars of investments are expected in upgrading and refurbishing existing but old infrastructure as well as new infrastructure projects in the broader MENA countries. This includes ports, roadways, airports, power plants, water purification plants and other investments in the health sector to provide for the increased growth in population as well as economic activity. International groups, including some of that are GCC-based, are showing increased interest in addressing these opportunities, but investors will go first where they think they have the most chance of success.

Business Intelligence Middle East - http://www.bi-me.com/main.php?id=27345&t=1&c=62&cg=4&mset=

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Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Brazilian Halal exports to the Middle East to cross US$6.38 billion in 200

Brazilian Halal exports to the Middle East are expected to exceed USD 6.38 billion in 2008, as the demand for beef meat and poultry continues to rise in the region. Industry reports have revealed that 33 per cent of Brazilian poultry and 40 per cent of its meat production are being supplied to the global Halal market, which is largely concentrated within the region. In line with their aims to leverage the booming Halal industry, more than 15 Brazilian companies have announced their participation at the second ‘Halal Expo 2008’, the definitive event for ‘Halal’ industry in the region, which will run from November 24 - 26, 2008 at the Crowne Plaza Hotel in Dubai.

As one of the biggest exporters of halal meat in the world, Brazil maintains a substantial percentage of its production to cater to the Halal market, approximately 70 per cent of its exports of 1 million frozen chickens goes to over 100 countries are Halal-certified. Most of the country’s Halal products are being shipped to GCC countries, with reports revealing that USD 1.4 billion worth of chicken has been exported from January to August 2008 to the Middle East - an increase of 66 per cent over the same period last year. In addition to meat and poultry products, Brazil has also emerged as a major source of other Halal-certified consumables in the region such as coffee, chocolate, biscuits, fruits, and juices, which will showcased during this year’s event.

“In the first eight months of 2008, Brazilian shipments of Halal products to the Middle East have totalled 756 tons, which reflects a 17 per cent rise compared to the same period last year,” said Francisco Turra, Executive President, Brazilian Poultry Exporters Association (ABEF). “This considerable increase in shipment of Brazil-produced Halal products to the Middle East has driven us to work towards fully leveraging this market by increasing the visibility of Brazilian food and beverage products. We have identified the ‘Halal Expo 2008’ as an important gateway to take us to the centre of the potential-laden regional and global Halal market, and we are looking forward to showcasing top-quality Brazilian Halal-certified products to buyers from the Middle East and UAE food and beverage sectors during this high profile event.”

The Brazilian Poultry Exporters Association (ABEF) has confirmed that the Middle East is still the main destination for Brazilian chicken exports, followed by Asia, which imported 632,000 tons of products valued at USD 1.3 billion. Among the region’s top economies, the UAE has emerged as one of the major Halal industry hubs, importing and channelling an estimated AED 550 million worth of Halal merchandise annually. In line with this, event organisers Orange Fairs & Events has decided to stage the event in Dubai for the second time, which is also set to feature ‘Sabores de Brasil’ (‘Brazilian Flavour’) to encourage new clients to taste and experience Brazilian products.

“The Gulf region as a whole has a huge requirement for Halal food, which presents global producers and suppliers an outstanding opportunity to expand their business to new heights. We are proud of the growing popularity of ‘Halal Expo’ among the world’s top producers of Halal products, and we are confident that this year’s event will reflect a considerable growth from last year’s achievements. As one of the leading Halal product exporters to the region, Brazil is seeking to showcase the credibility of Brazilian products in Halal market through this event, which reiterates its own integrity as a high impact business and networking event,” concluded Raees Ahmed, Director, Orange Fairs & Events.

At present, 51 global companies from 17 countries have already confirmed their participation at ‘Halal Expo 2008’. The organiser is also expecting to welcome more than 80 international exhibitors from Australia, Argentina, Brazil, Brunei, Bosnia, Canada, China, Egypt, France, India, Indonesia, Iran, Jordan, Netherlands, Pakistan, The Philippines, Turkey, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, KSA, UK and the UAE. In addition, representatives from government bodies such as Ministry of Industry and Primary Resources, Brunei Darussalam, including several regional and international Halal certification authorities, chambers of commerce, and international Halal associations have also confirmed their presence.

http://www.albawaba.com/en/countries/UAE/237851

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'Joint experts' statement on Iran' recommends sweeping changes to US policy

The following is a declaration put out by the American Foreign Policy Project, a group of top experts from across the political spectrum who work together to come up with policy ideas on the major foreign affairs issues facing the United States.

Despite recent glimmers of diplomacy, the United States and Iran remain locked in a cycle of threats and defiance that destabilizes the Middle East and weakens US national security.

Today, Iran and the United States are unable to coordinate campaigns against the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, their common enemies. Iran is either withholding help or acting to thwart US interests in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, and Gaza. Within Iran, a looming sense of external threat has empowered hard-liners and given them both motive and pretext to curb civil liberties and further restrict democracy. On the nuclear front, Iran continues to enrich uranium in spite of binding UN resolutions, backed by economic sanctions, calling for it to suspend enrichment.

US efforts to manage Iran through isolation, threats and sanctions have been tried intermittently for more than two decades. In that time they have not solved any major problem in US-Iran relations, and have made most of them worse. Faced with the manifest failure of past efforts to isolate or economically coerce Iran, some now advocate escalation of sanctions or even military attack. But dispassionate analysis shows that an attack would almost certainly backfire, wasting lives, fomenting extremism and damaging the long-term security interests of both the US and Israel. And long experience has shown that prospects for successfully coercing Iran through achievable economic sanctions are remote at best.

Fortunately, we are not forced to choose between a coercive strategy that has clearly failed and a military option that has very little chance of success. There is another way, one far more likely to succeed: Open the door to direct, unconditional and comprehensive negotiations at the senior diplomatic level where personal contacts can be developed, intentions tested, and possibilities explored on both sides. Adopt policies to facilitate unofficial contacts between scholars, professionals, religious leaders, lawmakers and ordinary citizens. Paradoxical as it may seem amid all the heated media rhetoric, sustained engagement is far more likely to strengthen United States national security at this stage than either escalation to war or continued efforts to threaten, intimidate or coerce Iran.

Here are five key steps the United States should take to implement an effective diplomatic strategy with Iran:

1. Replace calls for regime change with a long-term strategy

Threats are not cowing Iran and the current regime in Tehran is not in imminent peril. But few leaders will negotiate in good faith with a government they think is trying to subvert them, and that perception may well be the single greatest barrier under US control to meaningful dialogue with Iran. The United States needs to stop the provocations and take a long-term view with this regime, as it did with the Soviet Union and China. We might begin by facilitating broad-ranging people-to-people contacts, opening a US interest section in Tehran, and promoting cultural exchanges.

2. Support human rights through effective, international means

While the United States is rightly concerned with Iran's worsening record of human rights violations, the best way to address that concern is through supporting recognized international efforts. Iranian human rights and democracy advocates confirm that American political interference masquerading as "democracy promotion" is harming, not helping, the cause of democracy in Iran.

3. Allow Iran a place at the table - alongside other key states - in shaping the future of Iraq, Afghanistan and the region.

This was the recommendation of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group with regard to Iraq. It may be counter-intuitive in today's political climate - but it is sound policy. Iran has a long-term interest in the stability of its neighbors. Moreover, the United States and Iran support the same government in Iraq and face common enemies (the Taliban and Al-Qaeda) in Afghanistan. Iran has shown it can be a valuable ally when included as a partner, and a troublesome thorn when not. Offering Iran a place at the table cannot assure cooperation, but it will greatly increase the likelihood of cooperation by giving Iran something it highly values that it can lose by non-cooperation. The United States might start by appointing a special envoy with broad authority to deal comprehensively and constructively with Iran (as opposed to trading accusations) and explore its willingness to work with the United States on issues of common concern.

4. Address the nuclear issue within the context of a broader US-Iran opening

Nothing is gained by imposing peremptory preconditions on dialogue. The United States should take an active leadership role in ongoing multilateral talks to resolve the nuclear impasse in the context of wide-ranging dialogue with Iran. Negotiators should give the nuclear talks a reasonable deadline, and retain the threat of tougher sanctions if negotiations fail. They should also, however, offer the credible prospect of security assurances and specific, tangible benefits such as the easing of US sanctions in response to positive policy shifts in Iran. Active US involvement may not cure all, but it certainly will change the equation, particularly if it is part of a broader opening.

5. Re-energize the Arab-Israeli peace process and act as an honest broker in that process

Israel's security lies in making peace with its neighbors. Any US moves towards mediating the Arab-Israeli crisis in a balanced way would ease tensions in the region, and would be positively received as a step forward for peace. As a practical matter, however, experience has shown that any long-term solution to Israel's problems with the Palestinians and Lebanon probably will require dealing, directly or indirectly, with Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran supports these organizations, and thus has influence with them. If properly managed, a US rapprochement with Iran, even an opening of talks, could help in dealing with Arab-Israeli issues, benefiting Israel as well as its neighbors.

Long-standing diplomatic practice makes clear that talking directly to a foreign government in no way signals approval of the government, its policies or its actions. Indeed, there are numerous instances in our history when clear-eyed US diplomacy with regimes we deemed objectionable - e.g., Soviet Union, China, North Korea, Libya and Iran itself (cooperating in Afghanistan to topple the Taliban after 9/11) - produced positive results in difficult situations.

After many years of mutual hostility, no one should expect that engaging Iran will be easy. It may prove impossible. But past policies have not worked, and what has been largely missing from US policy for most of the past three decades is a sustained commitment to real diplomacy with Iran. The time has come to see what true diplomacy can accomplish.

Annex: Basic Misconceptions about Iran

US policies towards Iran have failed to achieve their objectives. A key reason for their failure is that they are rooted in fundamental misconceptions about Iran. This annex addresses eight key misconceptions that have driven US policy in the wrong direction.

Myth # 1. President Ahmadinejad calls the shots on nuclear and foreign policy.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has grabbed the world's attention with his inflammatory and sometimes offensive statements. But he does not call the shots on Iran's nuclear and foreign policy. The ultimate decision-maker is Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the commander-in-chief of Iran's forces. Despite his frequently hostile rhetoric aimed at Israel and the West, Khamenei's track record reveals a cautious decision-maker who acts after consulting advisors holding a range of views, including views sharply critical of Ahmadinejad. That said, it is clear that US policies and rhetoric have bolstered hard-liners in Iran, just as Ahmadinejad's confrontational rhetoric has bolstered hard-liners here.

Myth # 2. The political system of the Islamic Republic is frail and ripe for regime change.

In fact, there is currently no significant support within Iran for extra-constitutional regime change. Yes, there is popular dissatisfaction, but Iranians also recall the aftermath of their own revolution in 1979: lawlessness, mass executions, and the emigration of over half a million people, followed by a costly war. They have seen the outcome of US-sponsored regime change in Afghanistan and in Iraq. They want no part of it. Regime change may come to Iran, but it would be folly to bet on it happening soon.

Myth # 3. The Iranian leadership's religious beliefs render them undeterrable.

The recent history of Iran makes crystal clear that national self-preservation and regional influence - not some quest for martyrdom in the service of Islam - is Iran's main foreign policy goal. For example:

l In the 1990s, Iran chose a closer relationship with Russia over support for rebellious Chechen Muslims.

l Iran actively supported and helped to finance the US invasion of Afghanistan.

l Iran has ceased its efforts to export the Islamic revolution to other Persian Gulf states, in favor of developing good relations with the governments of those states.

l During the Iran-Iraq War, Iran took the pragmatic step of developing secret ties and trading arms with Israel, even as Iran and Israel denounced each other in public.

Myth # 4. Iran's current leadership is implacably opposed to the United States.

Iran will not accept preconditions for dialogue with the United States, any more than the United States would accept preconditions for talking to Iran. But Iran is clearly open to broad-ranging dialogue with the United States. In fact, it has made multiple peace overtures that the United States has rebuffed. Right after 9/11, Iran worked with the United States to get rid of the Taliban in Afghanistan, including paying for the Afghan troops serving under US command. Iran helped establish the US-backed government and then contributed more than $750 million to the reconstruction of Afghanistan. Iran expressed interest in a broader dialogue in 2002 and 2003. Instead, it was labeled part of an "axis of evil."

In 2005, reform-minded President Khatami was replaced by the hardliner, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But the same Supreme Leader who authorized earlier overtures is still in office today and he acknowledged, as recently as January 2008, that "the day that relations with America prove beneficial for the Iranian nation, I will be the first one to approve of that." All this does not prove that Iran will bargain in good faith with us. But it does disprove the claim that we know for sure they will not.

Myth # 5. Iran has declared its intention to attack Israel in order to "wipe Israel off the map."

This claim is based largely on a speech by President Ahmadinejad on Oct. 26, 2005, quoting a remark by Ayatollah Khomeini made decades ago: "This regime that is occupying Qods [Jerusalem] must be wiped off/eliminated from the pages of history/our times." Both before and since, Ahmadinejad has made numerous other, offensive, insulting and threatening remarks about Israel and other nations - most notably his indefensible denial of the Holocaust.

However, he has been criticized within Iran for these remarks. Supreme Leader Khamenei himself has "clarified" that "the Islamic Republic has never threatened and will never threaten any country" and specifically that Iran will not attack Israel unless Iran is attacked first. Ahmadinejad also has made clear, or been forced to clarify, that he was referring to regime change through demographics (giving the Palestinians a vote in a unitary state), not war.

What we know is that Ahmadinejad's recent statements do not appear to have materially altered Iran's long-standing policy - which, for decades, has been to deny the legitimacy of Israel; to arm and aid groups opposing Israel in Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank; but also, to promise to accept any deal with Israel that the Palestinians accept.

Myth # 6. US-sponsored "democracy promotion" can help bring about true democracy in Iran.

Instead of fostering democratic elements inside Iran, US-backed "democracy promotion" has provided an excuse to stifle them. That is why champions of human rights and democracy in Iran agree with the dissident who said, "The best thing the Americans can do for democracy in Iran is not to support it."

Myth # 7. Iran is clearly and firmly committed to developing nuclear weapons.

If Iraq teaches anything, it is the need to be both rigorous and honest when confronted with ambiguous evidence about WMDs. Yet once again we find proponents of conflict over-stating their case, this time by claiming that Iran has declared an intention to acquire nuclear weapons. In fact, Iranian leaders have consistently denied any such intention and even said that such weapons are "against Islam."

The issue is not what Iran is saying, but what it is doing, and here the facts are murky. We know that Iran is openly enriching uranium and learning to do it more efficiently, but claims this is only for peaceful use. There are detailed but disputed allegations that Iran secretly worked on nuclear weapons design before Ahmadinejad came to power, concerns that such work continues, and certainty that Iran is not cooperating fully with efforts to resolve the allegations. We also know that Iran has said it will negotiate on its enrichment program - without preconditions - and submit to intrusive inspections as part of a final deal. Past negotiations between Iran and a group of three European countries plus China and Russia have not gone anywhere, but the United States, Iran's chief nemesis, has not been active in those talks.

The facts viewed as a whole give cause for deep concern, but they are not unambiguous and in fact support a variety of interpretations: that Iran views enrichment chiefly as a source of national pride (akin to our moon landing); that Iran is advancing towards weapons capability but sees this as a bargaining chip to use in broader negotiations with the United States; that Iran is intent on achieving the capability to build a weapon on short notice as a deterrent to feared US or Israeli attack; or that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons to support aggressive goals. The only effective way to illuminate - and constructively alter - Iran's intentions is through skillful and careful diplomacy. History shows that sanctions alone are unlikely to succeed, and a strategy limited to escalating threats or attacking Iran is likely to backfire - creating or hardening a resolve to acquire nuclear weapons while inciting a backlash against us throughout the region.

Myth # 8. Iran and the United States have no basis for dialogue.

Those who favored refusing Iran's offers of dialogue in 2002 and 2003 - when they thought the US position so strong there was no need to talk - now assert that our position is so weak we cannot afford to talk. Wrong in both cases. Iran is eager for an end to sanctions and isolation, and needs access to world-class technology to bring new supplies of oil and gas online. Both countries share an interest in stabilizing Iraq and Afghanistan, which border Iran. Both support the Maliki government in Iraq, and face common enemies (the Taliban and Al-Qaeda) in Afghanistan. Both countries share the goal of combating narco-trafficking in the region. These opportunities exist, and the two governments have pursued them very occasionally in the past, but they have mostly been obscured in the belligerent rhetoric from both sides.

About the signatories: who they are and what they've done

l Ali Banuazizi

Professor of Political Science and Director, Islamic Civilization and Societies Program, Boston College. Dr. Banuazizi is the Past President of the Middle East Studies Association (MESA) and of the International Society for Iranian Studies. He served as the Editor of the Journal of Iranian Studies from 1968 to 1982. A leading expert on Iran and the Middle East Politics, he was a member of the Council of Foreign Relations' Task Force on Public Diplomacy.

l Mehrzad Boroujerdi

Associate Professor of Political Science at Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs; Founding Director of the Middle Eastern Studies Program. Dr. Boroujerdi is the author of "Iranian Intellectuals and the West: The Tormented Triumph of Nativism" (1996). His articles have appeared in numerous scholarly journals and more than a dozen edited books and Persian-language journals. He is the general editor of the "Modern Intellectual and Political History of the Middle East" series published by Syracuse University Press and served for seven years (2000 to 2007) as the book review editor of the International Journal of Middle East Studies. He is currently engaged in a major study of the current and next generation of political leaders in Iran.

l Juan R.I. Cole

Richard P. Mitchell Collegiate Professor of History at the University of Michigan. Juan Cole commands Arabic, Persian and Urdu, and has lived in various places in the Muslim world for extended periods of time. He also brings three decades of experience in studying and writing about contemporary Islamic movements and the relationship of the West and the Muslim world. His most recent book, "Engaging the Muslim World," will be published by Palgrave Macmillan in March 2009. He has a regular column at Salon.com, and is a frequent guest commentator on national radio and television news shows.

l Ambassador James F. Dobbins.

Former Special Envoy for Afghanistan and Representative to the Afghan opposition in the wake of September 11, 2001. For over three decades, Ambassador Dobbins has served both Republican and Democratic administrations in diplomatic roles around the world, often in times of crisis. Immediately after September 11, 2001, he served as the Bush administration's Special Envoy for Afghanistan and Representative to the Afghan opposition, interacting successfully with the Iranians in a cooperative effort to topple the Taliban and promote the emergence of a friendly and democratic government in Kabul. His many other high-level posts include service as Assistant Secretary of State for Europe; Special Assistant to the President for the Western Hemisphere; Special Adviser to the President and Secretary of State for the Balkans; Ambassador to the European Community; and the Clinton Administration's Special Envoy for Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, and Kosovo.

l Rola el-Husseini.

Assistant Professor, the Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University. Rola el-Husseini specializes in Lebanon and Shi'a political thought. She is finishing a book on elite politics in postwar Lebanon, along with a comparative study of the impact of Iran on Iraqi and Lebanese Shi'a political thought. At the Bush School, she teaches courses on Middle East Politics, Political Islam, and Authoritarianism in the Arab World.

l Farideh Farhi

Independent Researcher and Affiliate Graduate Faculty at the University of Hawai'i-Manoa. Farideh Farhi is the author of "States and Urban-Based Revolutions in Iran and Nicaragua" along with numerous articles and book chapters on contemporary Iranian politics and foreign policy. She also authored the Asia Society's report on Iran's 2001 elections; the International Crisis Group's report on the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran; and, a soon to be published World Bank study, "Contested Governance and the Need for Reform: The Case of the Islamic Republic of Iran." She has taught at the University of Colorado, Boulder; University of Hawai'i; University of Tehran and Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran. Her research sponsors include the United States Institute of Peace, the Rockefeller Foundation, and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars where she was recently a Public Policy Scholar. She travels widely and lectures regularly on Iranian politics and foreign relations at research institutions in Washington, D.C. and around the country.

l Geoffrey E. Forden

Research Associate in MIT's Program on Science, Technology and Society. Geoffrey Forden is among America's foremost experts on how proliferators acquire the know-how and industrial infrastructure to produce weapons of mass destruction. In 2002-2003, Dr. Forden served as the first Chief of Multidiscipline Analysis Section for UNMOVIC, the UN agency responsible for verifying and monitoring the dismantlement of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction. He has also served as a strategic weapons analyst in the National Security Division of the Congressional Budget Office.

l Hadi Ghaemi

Coordinator, International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran. Hadi Ghaemi is the coordinator of the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, and an internationally recognized expert on the situation of human rights in Iran. Ghaemi's reports and writings have focused international attention on the Iranian government's repression of free speech and persecution of civil society activists. He works closely with human rights defenders inside Iran to document and report on human rights violations. In 2003, he received a research and writing grant from the MacArthur Foundation. He served as the Iran and UAE researcher for Human Rights Watch until 2007. Ghaemi received his Ph.D. in physics from Boston University in 1994, and he was on the faculty at the City University of New York until 2000.

l Philip Giraldi

Former CIA Counter-terrorism Specialist. Philip Giraldi is a former CIA counter-terrorism specialist and military intelligence officer who served eighteen years overseas in Turkey, Italy, Germany, and Spain, where he was Chief of Base in Barcelona from 1989 to 1992. As a recognized authority on international security and counterterrorism issues he has appeared often on radio and TV, including "Good Morning America," "60 Minutes," MSNBC, NPR, BBC World News, FOX News, Polish National Television, Croatian National Television, al-Jazeera, and al-Arabiya. Currently, he is President of San Marco International, a consulting firm that specializes in international security management and risk assessment, and also a partner in Cannistraro Associates, a security consultancy located in McLean, Virginia.

l Farhad Kazemi

Professor of Politics and Middle Eastern Studies at New York University. As a leading scholar on issues of the Middle East, Dr. Kazemi is a member of the Advisory Group for Public Diplomacy in the Arab and Muslim World, appointed in 2003. He is also President of the Middle Eastern Studies Association, former President of the Society for Iranian Studies, and a leading member of such organizations as the American Political Science Association, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the Atlantic Council.

l Stephen Kinzer

Author and award-winning foreign correspondent. Stephen Kinzer is an award-winning foreign correspondent who has covered more than 50 countries on five continents - primarily for the New York Times, where he worked for more than 20 years. He is the author of numerous books and articles focusing on Iran and the Middle East, including "All the Shah's Men: An American Coup and the Roots of Middle East Terror" and "Overthrow: America's Century of Regime Change from Hawaii to Iraq." He now teaches journalism and political science at Northwestern University, contributes articles to the New York Review of Books and other periodicals, and writes a world affairs column for The Guardian.

l Ambassador William G. Miller

Senior Fellow, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Ambassador (ret.) William Green Miller has been a Senior Advisor for Search for Common Ground's US-Iran Program since 1998. The former US Ambassador to Ukraine (1993-1998) served six years in Iran as an FSO and fourteen years on Capitol Hill as staff director for three Senate committees. He served as President of the American Committee on US-Soviet relations and the International Foundation. Formerly an Associate Dean and professor at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Ambassador Miller is presently a Senior Policy Fellow the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

l Emile A. Nakhleh

Retired Senior Intelligence Service Officer and Director of the Political Islam Strategic Analysis Program in the Directorate of Intelligence at the CIA. During his fifteen years of service at the CIA, Dr. Emile A. Nakhleh held a variety of key positions, including Director of the Political Islam Strategic Analysis Program in the Directorate of Intelligence and Chief of the Regional Analysis Unit in the Office of Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis. Dr. Nakhleh was a founding member of the Senior Analytic Service and chaired the first SAS Council. He was awarded several senior intelligence commendation medals, including the Intelligence Commendation Medal (1997), the William Langer Award (2004), the Director's Medal (2004), and the Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal (2006). His research has focused on political Islam in the Middle East and the rest of the Muslim world as well as on political and educational reform, regime stability, and governance in the greater Middle East.

l Augustus Richard Norton

Professor of International Relations and Anthropology at Boston University. A. Richard Norton served as an advisor to the Iraq Study Group (Baker-Hamilton Commission), and he is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. His research experience in the Middle East spans near three decades, including residences in Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait and Lebanon. His current research interests include inter-sectarian relations in the Middle East, reformist Muslim thought, and strategies of political reform and opposition in authoritarian states. In the 1990s he headed a widely-cited three-year project funded by the Ford Foundation that examined the state-society relations in the Middle East and the question of civil society in the region. He is also a co-founder of the Boston Forum on the Middle East and the Conference Group on the Middle East.

l Richard Parker

Founder and Executive Director, American Foreign Policy Project; Professor, University of Connecticut School of Law. Dr. Parker is a professor at University of Connecticut School of Law and Founder and Executive Director of the new American Foreign Policy Project (AFPP). AFPP convenes large teams of top experts to collaboratively develop sound policy on the toughest national security and foreign policy issues of the day. It translates these policies into effective messages in ready-to-use talking point format, and then disseminates these messages to leaders, key influencers and the public through a variety of channels - briefings, traditional media, blogs, and a unique, highly-searchable website, americanforeignpolicy.org. Dr. Parker has served as Assistant General Counsel in the Office of the United States Trade Representative and Special Counsel to the Deputy Administrator of the US Environmental Protection Agency. He holds a BA in Public and International Affairs from Princeton University, a JD from Yale Law School, and a DPhil in International Relations from Oxford University, which he attended as a Rhodes Scholar.

l Trita Parsi

Award-winning author; President, National Iranian-American Council. Trita Parsi is the author of "Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Iran, Israel and the United States," which won the 2008 Silver Medal Recipient of the Council on Foreign Relations Arthur Ross Book Award. Fluent in Persian/Farsi, Dr. Parsi is regularly consulted by Western, Middle Eastern and Asian governments on Middle East affairs, and he is a co-founder and current President of the National Iranian American Council, a non-partisan, non-profit organization promoting Iranian-American participation in American civic life. His articles on Middle East affairs have been published in the numerous newspapers and magazines and he is a frequent commentor on radio and television news shows. He has also worked for the Swedish Permanent Mission to the UN, serving in the Security Council handling the affairs of Afghanistan, Iraq, Tajikistan and Western Sahara, and the General Assembly's Third Committee addressing human rights in Iran, Afghanistan, Myanmar and Iraq. Dr. Parsi was born in Iran and grew up in Sweden.

l Ambassador Thomas Pickering

Vice-Chairman, Hills & Company; Former US Ambassador to the UN, Russia, Israel and other nations. Ambassador Pickering has had a career spanning five decades as a US diplomat, serving as Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Ambassador to the United Nations, Ambassador to Russia, India, Israel, Nigeria, Jordan and El Salvador. He also served on assignments in Zanzibar and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. He holds the personal rank of Career Ambassador, the highest in the US Foreign Service. He has held numerous other positions at the State Department, including Executive Secretary and Special Assistant to Secretaries Rogers and Kissinger and Assistant Secretary for the Bureau of Oceans, Environmental and Scientific Affairs. He is currently Vice-chairman of Hills & Company, an international consulting firm providing advice to US businesses on investment, trade, and risk assessment issues abroad, particularly in emerging market economies. He is based in Washington, DC.

l Barnett R. Rubin

Director of Studies and Senior Fellow at the Center on International Cooperation of New York University; Former Special Advisor to the UN Special Representative of the Secretary General for Afghanistan. Barnett Rubin has written numerous books and articles on conflict prevention, state formation, and human rights. His articles have appeared in Foreign Affairs, International Affairs, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The New York Review of Books, and elsewhere. In late 2001, he served as Special Advisor to the UN Special Representative of the Secretary General for Afghanistan during the negotiations that produced the Bonn Agreement, and he also advised the United Nations on the drafting of the constitution of Afghanistan, the Afghanistan Compact, and the Afghanistan National Development Strategy. He has served as the Director of the Center for Preventive Action, and Director, Peace and Conflict Studies, at the Council on Foreign Relations, as well as the Director of the Center for the Study of Central Asia at Columbia University. Currently, he is Director of Studies and Senior Fellow at the Center on International Cooperation of New York University, where he directs the program on the Reconstruction of Afghanistan.

l Gary G. Sick

Senior Research Scholar at Columbia University SIPA's Middle East Institute; Adjunct Professor of International Affairs at SIPA. Professor Sick served on the National Security Council under Presidents Ford, Carter, and Reagan. He was the principal White House aide for Iran during the Iranian Revolution and the hostage crisis. Sick is a Captain (Ret.) in the US Navy, with service in the Persian Gulf, North Africa, and the Mediterranean. He was the deputy director for International Affairs at the Ford Foundation from 1982 to 1987, where he was responsible for programs relating to US foreign policy. He is also a member of the board (emeritus) of Human Rights Watch in New York and the chairman of the Advisory Committee of Human Rights Watch/Middle East.

l John Tirman

Executive Director & Principal Research Scientist, Center for International Studies, MIT. Tirman is the author or co-author and editor of ten books on international affairs and US foreign policy, including "Terror, Insurgency, and States" (2007), "The Maze of Fear: Security & Migration After 9/1" (2004) and "By the Crusader's Sword: The Human Toll of American Wars" (forthcoming). His articles on Iran have appeared in a wide variety of periodicals, including the Boston Globe, Strategic Insights, and AlterNet, as well as reports published by MIT. He has organized projects on Iran, Iraq, and the Persian Gulf at the Social Science Research Council (SSRC) and MIT, as well as a major historical research effort on the history of the US-Iran relationship in partnership with the National Security Archive and Brown University's Watson Institute.

l James Walsh

Research Associate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dr. Walsh's research and writings focus on international security, and in particular, topics involving weapons of mass destruction and terrorism. He has testified before the United States Senate on the issue of nuclear terrorism as well as on Iran's nuclear program. He has also chaired the Harvard University International Working Group on Radiological Terrorism. Among his current projects are two series of dialogues on nuclear issues, one with representatives from North Korea and one with leading figures in Iran. He has appeared frequently in the media as an expert on weapons of mass destruction and terrorism issues, including more than 300 appearances on CNN. His most recent publications include a chapter on Iran's nuclear program in "Terrorist Attacks and Nuclear Proliferation: Strategies for Overlapping Dangers" and a chapter on nuclear weapons in "A Muslim-Christian Study and Action Guide to the Nuclear Weapons Danger." He has also published "Learning from Past Success: The NPT and the Future of Non-proliferation" for the Commission on Weapons of Mass Destruction, chaired by Hans Blix (2006).

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=97803



US exports to Iran jump tenfold

US exports to Iran have jumped dramatically during president George Bush's years in office in spite of his tough rhetoric against the Tehran government and the imposition of fresh economic sanctions.

Analysis of US government trade figures published today by the Associated Press revealed a near tenfold increase over the last seven years in sales to Iran.

Goods include cigarettes, aircraft spare parts, bras, musical instruments, films, sculptures, furs and golf carts and/or snowmobiles.

Although the sums are small, the disclosure is a political embarrassment for the US, coming at a time when it has been putting pressure on European governments, banks and companies to cut ties with Tehran.

John Rankin, a US Treasury spokesman, today acknowledged there had been an increase but attributed this mainly to a change in legislation in 2000 that allowed the export of agricultural and medicinal goods. Before that, trade had been effectively zero.
He played down the exports as "miniscule," a quarter of 1% of all Iran's imports.

The AP analysis found data suggesting military equipment had been exported, even though there are sanctions in place designed to prevent this. The Treasury is still investigating but Rankin said initial findings indicated there had been no such sales and described it as a "clerical error".

US government figures show exports to Iran from 2001 to 2007 totalling $546m. It exported roughly $146m worth last year, compared with $8.3m in 2001, Bush's first year in office.

The US has had sanctions in place against Iran since the Tehran embassy hostage crisis almost 30 years ago. During Bush's presidency, relations with Iran have become increasingly strained, with Washington claiming that Iran has embarked on a programme to build a nuclear weapon, which Tehran denies. It also blames Iran for a flow of explosive devices into Iraq that have been used against US and British troops.

One of the Bush's administration's main instruments for putting pressure on Iran has been sanctions. The Bush administration today announced new financial sanctions against Iranian officials and companies allegedly involved in its nuclear programme.

In spite of the sanctions, Tehran is awash with goods from the US, mainly imported indirectly, usually through the United Arab Emirates.

Karim Sadjadpour, an Iranian specialist at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said: "You can get everything from an iPod to a Chevrolet in Tehran. I think this is a good thing. The more the Iranian population is exposed to American culture, which includes American products, the better for Iranian progress."

He added: "The more economic US penetration of Iran the greater the likelihood of economic and political reform within Iran."

The Treasury department received at least 4,523 license applications for Iran exports in the last seven years, of which it approved at least 2,821 and denied only about 178.

US export records show $148,000 worth of weapons and other military gear were exported, including $106,635 in rifles and $8,760 in rifle parts and accessories shipped in 2004. The records show too that shipped to Iran were at least $13,000 in "aircraft launching gear and/or deck arrestors," equipment needed to launch jets from aircraft carriers.

The Treasury said today it was highly unlikely there had been any such sales and suggested that the data had been reported incorrectly by officials.

Rankin denied there was a contradiction between the rise in US exports and US calls on European governments and companies to cease trading with Iran. He said the European companies were involved with finance and banking whereas the US exports involved food and medicine. He said: "Food and medicine are not tools we are going to use to put pressure on the regime."

The US vice-president, Dick Cheney, the leading hawk in the Bush administration towards Iran, warned Europeans last year that if their firms remain in Tehran, they are going to have problems doing business in the US.

The under-secretary for political affairs at the US state department, Nicholas Burns, and the under-secretary at the Treasury, Stuart Levey, have made frequent trips to reinforce this warning.

US exports to Iran include:
Cigarettes: $158m
Commerical aircraft parts: $620,000
Bras: $101,000
Perfume: $8,900
Cosmetics: $96,000
Musical instruments and parts: $30,000
Sculptures: $175,000
Golf carts and/or snowmobiles $21,000
Movies: $4,000
Furs: $3,300

Ewen MacAskill in Washington http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jul/08/iran.usa

US EXPORT COUNCIL PROVIDES ASSISTANCE TO US COMPANIES SEEKING ACCESS TO HIGH GROWTH MARKETS OVERSEAS. http://usexportcouncil.com/

Dubai International Capital

Dubai International Capital, the investment arm of government affiliated Dubai Holding, will focus on the region rather than abroad over the next year, according to the firm’s chairman and chief executive.

“I don’t want to invest now [outside the region]; globally, we are heading into a deep recession… which could last for one to two years and makes me want to be conservative,” said Sameer al Ansari, at a conference in Dubai today.

He added that the only deals completed by DIC this year were in emerging markets, where he believed better opportunities exist.

“Perhaps in the next 12 to 18 months, more lucrative opportunities will arise in the US and Europe; but for now, the focus should be on the region,” he said.

When asked about Dubai’s rising debt as an obstacle to encouraging investments in the region, Mr Ansari countered that the emirate’s debt levels were manageable, particularly in a region with an abundance of oil.

DIC, established in 2004, has a diverse, international portfolio consisting of stakes in aircraft manufacturer EADS in the Netherlands, electronics manufacturer Sony in Japan and HSBC bank in the UK.

US EXPORT COUNCIL PROVIDES ASSISTANCE TO US COMPANIES SEEKING ACCESS TO HIGH GROWTH MARKETS OVERSEAS. http://usexportcouncil.com/