GENEVA (Reuters) - Trade flows are likely to slow this year as consumers worried about the financial crisis cut back spending and a cyclical downturn bites into exports and imports, economists said.
But the crisis itself has so far had only a moderate impact on trade.
Exports and imports have been slowing markedly since the second quarter after growing strongly in the first, said Michael Finger, senior economist at the World Trade Organization (WTO).
"What we know already from the first seven-eight months is it's not a catastrophe, it's weakening. I don't see any panic or huge changes, it's relatively gradual," he told Reuters.
Trade would of course be vulnerable to a prolonged seizing-up of the banking system as commerce is financed by credit.
The picture is not quite as favorable as at first sight, because export and import figures earlier this year were inflated by record fuel prices.
In addition, business confidence has fallen to a three-year low in Germany, Europe's biggest economy which is powered by exports, and has also tumbled in the second biggest economy, France.
The head of shipping firm Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd (EXM.N: Quote,Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) warned last week that banks were no longer lending to fund trade, and cargoes were being left stranded on docks even though the demand for goods is there.
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