The ANC’s Polokwane conference last December was dominated by one big personal issue: who was to lead the ANC? – Jacob Zuma or Thabo Mbeki. This was central and dominant; policy issues were secondary. Reasons for supporting Zuma varied. The SACP and COSATU, who were they to contest a general election on their own probably would not get more than 8% of the vote, believe – with good reason – that they can manipulate Jacob Zuma into supporting their more left-wing interpretation of ANC policy.
To others, because he had crossed them or because they dislike him (he is perceived to be arrogant and aloof), the main priority was to prevent Mbeki from being re-elected – and the only person who could do this was Zuma. Among those who supported Zuma for this reason are ANC notables like Tokyo Sexwale, Mathews Phosa, and Cyril Ramaphosa – all three of whom Mbeki in 2001 had publicly accused of plotting against him. (Incidentally, Tokyo Sexwale, before throwing his weight behind Zuma, courageously launched an individual and personal, but unfortunately futile, campaign for the ANC presidency in mid-2007.)
Two important things happened at Polokwane. Firstly, Zuma was elected. Although defeated the general assumption was that Mbeki would see out his term. His humiliating and forced resignation in September 2008 was largely the result of certain judicial decisions – and the dynamics which these set in motion and which his enemies on the left took advantage of. But the second development coming out of Polokwane was a dramatic increase in the influence of the SACP and COSATU within the ANC alliance. Emboldened by their success in getting Zuma elected, they began calling the shots – and, reminiscent of passages in Whitaker Chambers Witness, they know what they want, they know how to get what they want, and they have the passion to follow through. But having called the shots – starting with a purge of Mbeki sympathisers at all levels of government – they overplayed their hand. And this is reflected in the emergence of the Congress of the People.
The break-away led by Lekota and Sam Shilowa (Sam and his wife business woman Wendy Luhabe add considerable credibility) is not “the splinter” the media initially described it as. What emerged from the well-attended National Convention which the duo organised in Sandton at relatively short notice over the week-end of 25 October was a significant (for want of a better description) middle class response to the trends and the events set out above. (By the way, all speakers at the convention wore suits and ties. Zuma, addressing an ANC rally the next day, wore a baseball cap and leather jacket!)
Firstly, it reflects unhappiness at the way Mbeki was forced out of office. Wendy Luhabe in an interview in The Independent on Sunday (9 November) says of the decision to summarily dismiss Mbeki: “In hindsight, the ANC’s decision to recall former president Mbeki has become a gift – a gift this country will only appreciate 10 to 20 years from now. This is because it forced the decision to launch a new political party and has got South African talking, casting a sharp light on the murky side of political life.”
Secondly, it reflects revulsion at the debasement of political language and dialogue, and crude political behaviour especially from ANC’s youth league. (The reason Desmond Tutu said he would not vote.) Thirdly, deep concern at increasingly vituperate attacks on the judiciary. And fourthly, and very importantly, the increasingly dominant influence of the SACP and COSATU and concern at its impact on economic and social policy. While the break-away group has yet to formulate its own social and economic policies, it is this further factor which explains its emphasis on constitutional reform aiming at greater accountability: the introduction of individual Parliamentary constituencies (as opposed to proportional representation) and a directly elected president.
The establishment of the Congress of the People has implications for all political parties in
The break-away has happened very quickly, and nobody knows what the new party’s social and economic policies will be. But from what I hear and read I get a sense that the predominant feeling is one of expectation, with some surprising people discreetly indicating support. Jakes Gerwel, who is extremely close to Nelson Mandela, in a column that he occasionally contributes to the Afrikaans Sunday newspaper Rapport, discussed the implications of Obama’s victory under the heading “Turn-around needed here as in America”. The column concluded with the sentiment: “Are there presently South African political figures and leaders who can achieve something similar?”
Dr Denis Worrall
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Denis Worrall is Chairman of Omega Investment Research, a South African based investment advisory and strategic marketing consultancy. He is a graduate of the University Cape Town (M. A.), University of South Africa (LLB) and Cornell University (Ph.D) where he was a Fulbright Scholar He started his career as an academic lecturing at universities in the US, Nigeria and South Africa . His last post was as research Professor at
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