South Africa’s fourth fully democratic election takes place on 22 April, and electioneering is already underway. This election is different from the previous three elections in certain important respects:
- The hope, and what one might describe as the innocence, which marked the first election in 1994, and which was enormously advantageous to the ANC, is now a thing of memories. In its place is a sense of disillusionment, and this applies right across the society.
- The liberation or “struggle” legacy which was a feature of early elections, has faded over the years and, in any event, no party can today claim a monopoly of liberation credentials.
- For the first time, with the emergence of COPE (Congress of the People), the breakaway group from the ANC, the ANC is being seriously challenged by people who can claim to share its experience and legacy.
- This signals the emergence of a more conventional political party system – more a multi-party rather than a single-party dominated system.
- After more than ten years of impressive economic growth, the election takes place as South Africa enters a recession.
- South Africa has always had a strong print media, but newspapers seem to be coming into their own in this particular election. Their reportage of the campaign has been commendable with comprehensive coverage of all points of view, penetrating analysis and intelligent commentary. The effect also of the SABC, the state broadcaster, is to some extent neutralised by the emergence of the ETV station.
Most of the established opposition parties – for example, the Democratic Alliance and the Independent Democrats – are focusing quite naturally on these issues. But something special needs to be said about COPE. When the leaders of COPE broke away from the ANC – for the reasons outlined in an earlier Insight – they called a constitutional convention in Johannesburg. Dominating this was a high-level of moral purpose. The conference speakers were chosen less for their direct political clout than for their moral or philosophical status and whether they could contribute in broad terms to what constitutional democracy means. Speakers on that occasion deplored the attacks on the judiciary and spoke up for the rule of law, independence of the courts, accountability, and integrity and transparency in government. It was a very different experience from what South Africans had become used to, and for that rea son quite remarkable. The point was made at the time that this reflected essentially the emergence of a new middle-class and its values.
Apart from who is going to lead the country after April, the only serious and main issue is in response to the general disquiet at the sleaze of our politics over the past few years – going back to Tony Yengeni’s imprisonment for a kick-back on the arms deal, when senior ANC colleagues cheered him to jail; and the Travelgate fraud – when a number of MP’s abused their travel allowances with most of them getting off scott free. And the arms deal, which like a rotting beached whale has cast a pall over our politics for the last ten years, and will no doubt continue to foul the air after the April election.
But the litany doesn’t end there:
- The last fortnight has seen Khaya Ngqula, the ever controversial and incorrigible head of SA Airways, been required to resign because of alleged nepotism.
- In what can only be described as an enormous personal tragedy, Carl Niehaus, prominent and up-front spokesperson for the ANC, was forced within this week to resign as spokesperson for the ANC because of serial fraud and dishonesty.
- The on-going trial of Jackie Selebi, suspended Commissioner of Police and the dragged out trial of Judge Motata on allegations of drunken driving.
- The antics of Judge Hlophe of the Cape Supreme Court.
- The British government’s insistence that South Africans visiting the UK – or even passing through – require visas because South Africa’s travel documents are too freely available to non-South Africans.
- The arrest at Heathrow, twice within a month of an SAA cabin crew for trying to smuggle drugs into the UK; and on top of all this
- Jacob Zuma’s endless and determined efforts to stay out of court on corruption charges. (A very recently published IPSOS-Markinor poll showed that only 41% of ANC supporters believe Zuma is innocent of corruption.)
Bruce gives something of the flavour of South African politics at the moment and interestingly COPE, more effectively than others, has grasped this. It didn’t please the politicos in the party when the National Committee appointed Bishop Nvume Dandala, former presiding Bishop of the Methodist Church in Southern Africa as the Party’s presidential candidate. He is a senior and highly-recognised churchman, and his appointment as COPE’s presidential candidate is a stroke of brilliance – with one very important proviso – that he has the instinct for politics. As the Cape Times put it in an editorial: “The appointment seems aimed at claiming for COPE the moral high-ground. It has very deliberately chosen a man who visibly contrasts with the ANC president Jacob Zuma. Dandala is younger than his ANC counterpart. He has a solid reputation, free of blemish or baggage of any sort. He is skilled in communications. He comes from a church very different to that of the ANC, and some in the electorate may see in him much needed new blood, a man who offers a chance to break from the mould of ANC-dominated political life.”
Dandala, in a short statement after his election, said this: “I joined COPE because I have spent my life working for peace, fighting for justice and seeking a society where integrity is the most important guiding philosophy. I found in COPE people who share these values. Voting for COPE gives South Africans a chance to vote for a new beginning – for a government where integrity guides not self-interest. You’ll be voting for a robust fight against corruption. You will vote for a society where we can all stand together to build the principled society South Africans deserve.” These are welcome sentiments – and coming from whom they do, they may be taken seriously. On the ANC side, aside from an occasional Thatcherite statement by Trevor Manuel or by Minister of Education Naledi Pandor – two stars in the ANC’s political firmament – ANC government rhetoric is uninspiring. In fact, it is no exa ggeration to say that the tone is being set by the out of control and ignorant ANC Youth Leader Julius Malema.
No recent polls have been conducted to determine what the support for individual parties is. But right now, I don’t believe anybody doubts that the ANC will win the election. But it is possible that the opposition collectively could put together in the region of 35 - 40% of the vote. There is likely to be a big “stay away” and a significant “lie” factor which will mainly work against the ANC.
Dr Denis Worrall
Email: kamreyac@omegainvest.co.za for all enquiries
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Denis Worrall is Chairman of Omega Investment Research, a South African based investment advisory and strategic marketing consultancy. He is a graduate of the University Cape Town (M.A.), University of South Africa (LLB) and Cornell University (Ph.D) where he was a Fulbright Scholar He started his career as an academic lecturing at universities in the US, Nigeria and South Africa . His last post was as research Professor at Rhodes University. He practised as an advocate for seven years in Cape Town, before going into public life. He has been a Member of Parliament, chairman of the Constitutional committee of the Presidents’ council, South African Ambassador to Australia and the Court of St James (London).
